Rob Alexander finds a couple of excellent value bets for the weekend's opening World Cup qualifiers in Europe.
Fifty-three nations belonging to UEFA begin their quest to qualify for the 2014 World Cup in Brazil this weekend in what promises to be a fascinating international break, with most teams playing two matches that could make or break their qualification hopes. Thirteen teams from UEFA will qualify for this World Cup, meaning that once again Europe will be the best represented continent at a World Cup.
In terms of betting propositions the first round of fixtures (on Friday and Saturday) looks pretty reasonable in terms of value options. Scotland begin their qualification on Saturday at home to Serbia and given their excellent performance against Australia last time out and their typically good home form in qualifying campaigns they look good value to begin their campaign with a win.
There are always a few upsets, especially early on in an qualification campaign and while it is impossible to see Germany losing at home to Faroe Islands on Friday night the same can't be said of France's trip to Helsinki to take on a Finland side that invariably ups their game against big teams. The Finns have taken points off Germany in recent qualifiers as well as providing Netherlands and Sweden with stern tests in Euro 2012 qualifiers. While there are always going to be upsets when such a large number of international matches are on, picking them out is very difficult.
Plenty of matches offer the punter some value so as well as giving rationale on my Finland v France and Scotland v Serbia bets I'll post a small selection of slightly more speculative bets that look good value.
Finland v France
France begin their campaign with what, on paper, looks a relatively easy tie away to Group I minnows Finland. They will be desperate to erase any lingering memories of Euro 2012, where they underperformed terribly when expected to go far. They were knocked out with barely a wimper in the quarter-finals and a disappointing Group display where they scraped through by the skin of their teeth.
Finland have never qualified for a major competition but have always been tough opponents in qualification. While they may not challenge Spain or France in the group, they do have enough quality in their squad with players like Schalke forward Teemu Pukki and Ajax defender Niklas Moisander to give both those sides a scare when they come to visit. At best odds of 6/1 to win this match they could well be value but it's definitely worth taking a look at the Asian Handicap betting to find a bet that gives us some value as well as a safety net.
I feel the match is going to be closer than the match odds suggest so I would not be averse to backing Finland at 6/1 or the draw at 3/1, but I believe a small headstart to Finland will mean a lot. France do have a far superior side on paper but the Finns are no pushovers and have a decent enough record against bigger countries in qualifying campaigns to come into this match with confidence that they won't be on the end of a hammering.
It looks worth taking a risk on Finland with a three-quarter goal headstart at 6/5 with Paddy Power as we'll get half our stake back if they lose by a single goal and have a good chance of making a decent profit if they can manage a draw (as they did home and away against Germany during World Cup 2010 qualifying). While it's easy to see a France victory, I can't see them winning by more than one goal so it's also worth taking a small risk on the draw.
Bet 1 point on Finland +0.75 at 6/5 with Paddy Power.
Bet 0.5 points on the draw at 3/1 with bet365.
Scotland v Serbia
As a Scot it is hard to find any reasons to back Scotland in a competitive match, especially with the memory of scraping a home win against Liechtenstein still relatively fresh in the memory. In spite of this I'm backing them to come out of their opening qualifier against Serbia with all three points. They look great value at 17/10 against a supposedly superior opposition in Sinisa Mihaljovic's side.
Scotland typically perform best when they are at Hampden against a team that is better than them on paper, look at their performances in defeat to Spain in the last qualifying campaign and that is when Craig Levein got the best out of his side. Serbia are clearly no Spain so Scotland have a chance to show what they can do with legitimate belief that they can win the match. In players like Allan MacGregor, Graham Dorrans, James Morrison and Steven Naismith there is plenty of quality in the Scotland squad that perhaps they don't get enough credit for.
Hampden is always a tough place to visit and while Serbia have plenty of experienced internationals, nothing can prepare a visiting player for the atmosphere at Hampden Park. Serbia's best chance of taking something from the match will be to silence the crowd early on by taking the match by the scruff of the neck. They do have the players capable of keeping Scotland quiet, but I am quietly confident that Serbia will find the pressure too much. At best odds of 2/1 to win I wouldn't stop anyone backing them but they should be longer. Young striker Miralem Sulejmani looks their biggest threat and could cause Scotland's relatively threadbare defence some problems.
It's definitely worth taking a risk on Scotland winning this match, and I will continue to back them at home throughout the campaign.
Bet 2 points on Scotland at 17/10 with BetVictor.
Other Possible Bets
Estonia at 3/1 with bet365 to beat Romania at home. Estonia made the play-offs of Euro 2012 qualifying and shouldn't be this long to win a match against a Romania side in transition, especially in Tallinn.
Slovenia at 2/1 with Boylesports to beat Switzerland at home. Slovenia have more then enough quality to outrun those odds against a decent but not worldbeating Switzerland team.