Andorra v England Selection

England should have no problems in seeing off opponents ranked 186th in the world...

Andorra v England
Saturday, 7pm (UK time)

England should have no problems in seeing off opponents ranked 186th in the world – that`s one place behind Cayman Islands, and two behind Brunei Darussalem. The Three Lions` last fixture against Andorra at the Olympic Stadium in Barcelona was in March 2007, and contained 45 minutes of football generally thought to be the worst under Steve McClaren – but England still came away 3-0 winners, which says everything about the hosts` lack of quality. It`s not just who beat them, either: Andorra`s Euro 2008 qualifying record read 12 games played, 12 lost, two scored, 42 conceded. Israel, Macedonia and Estonia all inflicted 2-0 defeats, Macedonia triumphed 3-0 and Croatia ran riot, coming away with a 6-0 victory.

Those results are why so many prices on this match are prohibitively short – England are 1/6 to win at half-time and full-time, 1/12 to keep a clean sheet and 1/20 to score first. But there is a bit of value if you look hard enough.

Trading on goals offers an interesting option. Andorra conceded 17 goals at home in their Euro 2008 qualifiers – with 12 of them, or 71% of the total, coming during the middle third (31 to 60 mins) of games. It seems Andorra start matches really solidly as they look to keep a clean sheet for as long as possible, but they eventually crack and the visitors run up a sizeable winning margin during the middle period before easing off in the later stages. The 15 minutes either side of half-time are the "hot spots" for goals.

The best related market for ante-post punters is opposing an early goal. Andorra have conceded in the opening 20 minutes in only three of their last 12 home qualifiers – and that includes performances against the likes of Croatia, Romania and Czech Republic. The value therefore lies in backing the opening goal to come after the opening 20 minutes but probably before half-time - so backing the first goal to be netted from 21-30 minutes at 4/1 and 31-40 minutes at 6/1 has genuine appeal.

Recommended Bets:
1pt First goal 21-30 minutes (4/1)
1pt First goal 31-40 minutes (6/1)