Serie A Picks - 28 Feb 2010

Ed Gallois provides two top picks for this weekend`s Serie A action.

The past week has been a mixed bag in Europe for Italian clubs. Inter have to be content with their Champions League first-leg 2-1 win over Chelsea after being outplayed for most of the match; Juventus will be satisfied with their workmanlike draw against Ajax that puts them through to the quarter-finals of the Europa League; AC Milan are no doubt still licking their wounds after Manchester United’s Wayne Rooney single-handedly put them to the sword at the San Siro; while Roma must be contemplating harikiri when they think back to those three goals they conceded in the space of five minutes against Panathinaikos that put them out of Europe.

Our focus will not be with the league’s star sides this week, however. The value lies elsewhere.

Chievo vs Cagliari

Chievo’s last home game was on Valentine’s Day against rock-bottom Siena. Clearly Di Carlo’s side got carried away with the spirit of the occasion because they gifted the away side a rare victory. Perhaps it was just a momentary blip in an otherwise solid-enough run of results for the Verona club, but my hunch is you simply don’t get beaten at home by Siena, who’ve won only four games all season, unless you’re distinctly average. One win in their last five (away to second-bottom Atalanta) bears this out.

Their opponents this week are Cagliari, who are still somewhat improbably in the race for a Champions League place, although qualifying for the Europa League is a much more realistic aim for the Sardinian club. Their form of late hasn’t been spectacular, but they’ve only lost two from 10, and one of those was against the unstoppable Inter. They’re easily capable of holding mediocre Chievo to a draw, which means a ¼ goal start on the handicap is value.

Bet 1pt on Cagliari at +1/4 goal (1.95) with Ladbrokes.

Chievo won 2-1

Parma vs Sampdoria

It’s not often the bookies make a clanger when pricing up games, but I genuinely think this is one of them. Parma last won a match in Serie A on December 13, 2009. That’s last decade! They’ve lost four out of their last five games; seven out of their last nine. How can they be favourites against anyone, let alone high-flying Sampdoria?

The Genoans, meanwhile, are in scintillating form, winning four from their last five. The other result in that sequence was a draw AWAY to league leaders Inter last weekend. Unless the bookies have found out something about Sampdoria that everyone else on the planet doesn’t know, I can’t see why they would make Parma favourites for this tie. As such, I will be placing a sizeable wager on the away side covering the ¼ goal handicap. I suggest you follow suit.

Bet 5pts on Sampdoria at +1/4 goal (2.05) with Bet365.

Parma won 1-0