Premier League Picks - 30 September 2011

In this weekend's Premier League action Rob Alexander picks out two value bets

This weekend's Premier League fixture list sees two of the biggest derby's of any season take place on the same weekend as Liverpool make the short journey to Goodison Park to take on Everton on Saturday and on Sunday Arsenal visit Tottenham Hotspur who will be bidding to make Arsene Wenger's 15th anniversary in charge of the Gunners as miserable as possible.

Manchester City make the short trip to Lancashire rivals Blackburn Rovers on Saturday amid more controversy regarding Carlos Tevez's place at the club, which seems almost untenable given his apparent refusal to come off the bench against Bayern Munich. The Blues have had a great start domestically and will be confident of claiming another victory despite any off-field issues there may be.

Queens Park Rangers visit former Loftus Road tenant's Fulham in another derby match on Sunday. While QPR have had a solid start to the season, Fulham are really struggling and need a confidence boosting win over their local rivals to ease the pressure on Martin Jol.

Manchester United will be hoping to put their poor Champions League performance against FC Basel behind them with a good win over Norwich City. Sir Alex Ferguson was fuming with his side after letting slip a two goal lead at home to the Swiss side, so it could be the worst time for Norwich to visit as they could easily be on the end of a United backlash.

Chelsea face a tough test of their mettle at Bolton Wanderers. Even though Bolton are bottom of the league having lost five in a row they are still a tough prospect at the Reebok Stadium and it will be a tough match for Andre Villas Boas' side.

In what promises to be a very exciting weekend of Premier League football, I've picked out two good value bets to end the recent dismal run of picks.

Weekend Picks

Everton v Liverpool

Everton have not started the season as slowly as usual and are just three points behind their city rivals with a game in hand. A good performance at Manchester City last weekend impressed many people and will have left the Everton faithful confident of a good season, as long as the threadbare Toffees squad is not depleted by injuries.

A fully fit Marouane Fellaini has really boosted Everton this season and he will be key to any victory against Liverpool. Young Greek striker Apostolos Vellios has really impressed as well this season and his energy has really boosted David Moyes' side.

Kenny Dalglish will be pretty pleased with Liverpool's season so far and the imminent return of Steven Gerrard to starting matches will help the Reds push on for Champions League football.

Dalglish has a fantastic record in this tie, both as player and manager. He knows what victory means to both sets of fans and will be going all out to deliver for the red half of the city.

Everton have only lost one of their last fourteen Premier League matches at Goodison Park (the defeat to QPR in the first match of this season), while Liverpool have won just two from seven away from Anfield.

Stats still count for a lot, even in derby matches where they are said to "go out the window" but these are telling nonetheless and edge me towards backing Everton in this match.

Bet 2 points on Everton -0.25 at 2.5 with bet365.

Swansea City v Stoke City

Swansea City face a really tough match against one of the most improved sides in the Premier League, Stoke City. The Swans are slowly adjusting to life in the Premier League and were brought down to earth by Chelsea last weekend.

Brendan Rogers' side will look to make the Liberty Stadium a fortress over the season and will be hoping his side pick up as many points as possible against sides like Stoke.

It will be a true test of Swansea City's quality and determination this Sunday as Stoke City are coming into the match on a decent run of form which has seen them take points off Spurs and Manchester United in recent weeks and they beat Besiktas on Thursday in the Europa League.

I fancy Stoke City to come away from the match with something and backing them with no handicap is tempting as the odds are much better than in the draw no bet market.

Swansea City have the fantastic fans that any newly promoted side needs to help them to victory on tough occasions but I feel this match might be a step too far this early in the season.

Bet 3 points on Stoke 0 at 2.06 with Victor Chandler.

bet365