Premier League Betting Picks - 28-29 Aug 2010

Ed Gallois picks out two value bet for this weekend`s Premier League ties.

First, to clear up the poor result in midweek. There’s no doubt Young Boys defended – pardon the pun – like schoolboys at White Hart Lane on Wednesday, but with a two goal start I stand by the selection. Instead, let’s focus on future betting opportunities and see if we can recreate last weekend’s 100% record in the EPL.

Blackburn vs Arsenal

Blackburn are receiving a freakily large full goal start at home to Arsenal in this match – an opportunity we simply cannot pass up. I understand why the bookies have priced up the match as they have – Arsenal are sexy, Blackburn aren’t (that`s the simplified version anyway; you don’t want me to go into a long-winded analysis of betting patterns, after all) – but it’s cuckoo nonetheless. Just because the Gunners tonked Blackpool at home last weekend doesn`t mean they will smash their next opponent to pieces, especially away from the Emirates fortress.

Even more so when the team they will be facing on Saturday is Rovers, who are notoriously tough to beat at home. Just ask Everton on the opening day of the season. In fact, ask any Premier League side. Blackburn lost all of three games at Ewood Park last season; they beat Arsenal 2-1 in this corresponding fixture. Like him or loathe him, Sam Allardyce is good at crafting in-ya-face teams in his image and the Gunners will be in for a rough ride in Lancashire this weekend.

I still fancy Arsenal to figure strongly in the title race this year, but they are not the Invincibles of old and shouldn’t be handing out such generous starts on the road against capable opposition. Wenger – quite rightly – will see a draw at Ewood Park as a satisfactory outcome. All-conquering Chelsea only got a point there last season and that was at a crucial stage of the title run-in.

These kinds of false favourite bets keep popping up. They’re not based on anything solid like form or head-to-heads, but instead on the average punter’s aversion to betting on dull teams. Heck, we don’t care if Blackburn aren’t sexy; we just want them for their money.

Bet 5pts on Blackburn receiving a 1 goal start at 1.80 with Paddy Power

Sunderland vs Man City

Here we go again. Another average side that are super-tricky to beat at home priced up by the bookies as clear underdogs against silky smooth opposition. This time the hosts are only receiving ½ goal start, but it’s still value. Like Blackburn, Sunderland only lost three games at home last season and picked up some tasty scalps along the way: Arsenal, Liverpool and Tottenham to name a few.

Steve Bruce’s side drew with Man City at the Stadium of Light in March, and while Mancini has acquisitioned several big-money signings since then, City are clearly not the finished article yet and I fancy another stalemate against the Mackems on Sunday. Beating Liverpool 3-0 last weekend was an impressive result for the richest club in the Premier League, but it’s only one result. Let’s not forget how poor they were at Tottenham on the opening day of the season.

This is the sort of game that Man City need to win if they are to be in with a shout of the title this season, but I suspect it is a hurdle too high for them to jump right now. I will be staking a medium wager on the home side holding "massive" City at bay. I suggest you follow suit.

Bet 3pts on Sunderland receiving a 1/2 goal start at 21/20 with Bet365