Premier League Betting Picks - 21-23 Aug 2010

Ed Gallois highlights two value bets for the Premier League this weekend.

In terms of beating the bookies, last weekend was not the most auspicious start to the season it must be said. You can’t let these things affect your betting strategy, however, as it’s all about staying focused and letting the value dictate your long-term profit margin.

And so onto the second instalment of Betasia.com’s Premier League picks. Apart from the two matches to be played on Sunday, the rest of the weekend’s games look to have been correctly priced up by the layers. Thus it is to Sunday we look.

Fulham vs Man Utd

Fulham are a notoriously tough nut to crack at home, so I’m not entirely sure why they’re receiving a full goal start on the handicap against United in this match. Last season they stuffed Ferguson’s side 3-0 at the Cottage and the year before that they won 2-0.

Perhaps you could make an argument that they will struggle now that Roy Hodgson has gone, but Mark Hughes is a competent Premiership manager and I can’t see that happening. Apart from the soon-to-be-departing Schwarzer, their squad remains intact, plus there’s a couple of fairly decent additions, so there’s no reason at all to think they won’t finish safely midtable again.

In fact, getting a draw at Bolton last week was an improvement from last season as Fulham were atrocious on the road under Hodgson.

United, for their part, looked pretty devastating against Newcastle in their first game back, but then they always beat the Magpies. Playing a newly-promoted side at home that you have under some kind of voodoo spell is hardly the same as what faces them this weekend.

This game could be a barometer of United’s chances this season. If they can win matches like this, they are in with a real shout of reclaiming the title, but I’m not convinced they will win this encounter. Rooney still isn’t back to firing from all cylinders, and for now I think we should be keen to oppose the Red Devils giving out generous starts to half-decent sides away from home.

Bet 3pts on Fulham receiving a 1 goal start at 1.90 with Ladbrokes

Newcastle vs Aston Villa

Newcastle were borderline dire in their opening fixture at Old Trafford, but not many teams get much out change out of United at home, and when you factor in the Magpies’ awful record against Ferguson’s side, I don’t think too much meaning should be placed on the 3-0 defeat. They will fare much better against Villa at home – of that I am sure.

The bookies have made two mistakes pricing up this game. They’re underestimating Newcastle – who should be competent at home this season – and overestimating Aston Villa. It’s true that the Midlands side took apart West Ham last week, but that was more to do with the Hammers not turning up.

With O’Neill no longer pulling the reins and linchpin Milner having finally departed for Man City, I see Villa dropping back this season – it’s a matter of when not if in my view – and there’s no reason that downshift in fortunes won’t begin this weekend.

Taking Newcastle with a quarter goal start at home against a mediocre side buoyed by false confidence looks a decent bet to me and I suggest you follow me in placing a medium stake on the hosts.

Bet 3pts on Newcastle receiving a 1/4 goal start at 1.90 with Ladbrokes