Premier League Betting Picks - 14-16 Aug 2010

Ed Gallois picks out two VALUE bets for the Premier League`s opening weekend of the season.

Here we go then...the opening weekend of a new Premier League campaign. More importantly, it’s the start of a new EPL betting campaign as Betasia.com helps you take the bookies to the cleaners week in, week out.

In my experience, bookmakers underestimate promoted teams for the first match of the season and this is something we can capitalise on. They also place too little emphasis on pre-season form and summer personnel changes – areas again we can take advantage of in the picks that follow.

Chelsea vs West Brom

As I outlined in my Premier League Winner pick pack, Chelsea are worthy favourites to win the title again this year, and under normal circumstances I would expect them to put West Brom to the sword in this match, but there are a few factors associated with this tie which suggest it might not be the walkover everyone presumes it will be.

First is Chelsea’s pre-season form: horrible. They looked extremely sluggish against United in the Community Shield last Sunday, and I’m far from convinced some of their key players are fully match-fit after their World Cup summer exertions. Of course, that can all change when the whistle blows on Saturday afternoon, and Chelsea do have a superb record on opening day of the season, but it is worth noting they are not firing from all cylinders right now.

Second is the return of Di Matteo to Stamford Bridge – the ex-Chelsea star and now manager of West Brom will be hell-bent on causing an upset on Saturday and it’s hard to think of a side that will be more motivated to not get beaten this weekend.

Third and most important is the confidence that West Brom currently exude as a club. When you are a newly promoted side, you are used to winning and anything seems possible. Even beating Chelsea away from home. Contrast that to 20 games into the season, when you’ve lost six on the trot, and the difference in players’ skill and energy levels will be enormous.

Which all adds up to West Brom being ripe to back on the handicap with such a huge start. Paddy Power are offering 10/11 on the new boys with a tasty two goal cushion and I recommend taking them up on their generous offer.

Bet 3pts on West Brom receiving a 2 goal start at 10/11 with Paddy Power

Aston Villa vs West Ham

Manager-less Aston Villa are ripe for opposing this weekend as the club’s priority is not Saturday’s game against West Ham but finding a new coach after Martin O’Neill quit Villa just one week before the beginning of the season.

The Northern Irishman’s sudden departure was not a huge surprise to me as he is an impulse decision-maker, as well as being a great manager. I found this out first-hand a couple of years ago when he stormed out of a press conference after I’d had the temerity to ask why Villa were letting one of their best players sign for Juventus. It appears his anger at Villa’s short-sighted transfer policy never abated and I expect to see a sizeable downturn in the Midland club’s fortunes this season without O’Neill at the helm.

In direct contrast, West Ham look as settled as they’ve been for a long time with new manager Avram Grant – who worked wonders at Portsmouth last season and let’s not forget took Chelsea to within a hair’s breadth of winning the Champions League – at the helm. I don’t see the Hammers setting the Premier League alight this season, but with Grant in charge I do expect a distinct improvement in their fortunes. Which can start at Villa Park this weekend as Villa are underachievers at home even under normal circumstances.

Taking West Ham with ½ goal start looks a good bet to me and I recommend placing a medium-sized wager on the away side holding out for a draw or more.

Bet 3pts on West Ham receiving a 1/2 goal start at 10/11 with Paddy Power