Premier League Golden Boot Picks - August 2010

Ed Gallois analyses the 2010/11 Premier League Golden Boot competition and recommends two bets to get stuck into.

If you followed my picks during the World Cup, you’ll know I’m not a huge fan of top goalscorer betting markets simply because they involve long shot wagers. And long shot wagers, by definition, don’t often come in. The inherent randomness of the top goalscorer market is more pronounced in bloated competitions such as the World Cup, but even in a fairly predictable league such as the Premiership, it`s tough to pick out a striker who will outshine all others given one injury or dry patch in front of goal can take him out of the running.

This self-evident truth is especially pertinent this season given that the four top strikers in the league – Drogba, Rooney, Torres and Van Persie – are all carrying lingering injury problems. Those four, though, are where we must focus our attention as they are the top goalscorers for each of the biggest teams in the country, and you have to go back a decade to find a winner in this market who did not play for one of the big boys.

Didier Drogba (Chelsea)

Winner of last year’s Golden Boot with a barnstorming 29 goals, three ahead of his nearest rival, and the market leader this season at 11/2. Aside from his petulant nature, the Drog, as he is affectionately known, is the complete centre-forward and cannot be discounted to win the award at the ripe old age of 32. It clearly helps his cause that he is the target man for a side that scored a mind-boggling 103 goals in the EPL last season.

However, the Ivorian hitman was nowhere near match-fit at the World Cup and is still carrying a groin injury after a recent hernia operation, which puts serious doubt in my mind whether he will play enough games this season to be in with a shot of scoring 30 goals. It’s certainly possible and he won’t have the Africa Cup of Nations to distract him in the New Year, but at 11/2 the odds just aren’t big enough to back him to pull off another Annus Mirabilis.

Wayne Rooney (Man Utd)

According to sections of the press, Wayne Rooney “silenced the Boo Boys” against Chelsea in the Community Shield, but I didn’t think he was that good. The difference on Sunday was that half of Chelsea’s team were clearly not match-fit, so Rooney’s relative lack of sharpness didn’t stand out as much as it did in South Africa.

At 6/1 to win the Golden Boot, Manchester United’s talisman looks poor value. He certainly has the abrasive personality and God-given talent to bounce back from his nightmare with England this summer, but I suspect he is still carrying an injury and will break down this season for an extended period. Rooney may be the best player in the Premier League, but even he can’t bang in goals if his body won’t allow it.

Fernando Torres (Liverpool)

Another world-class striker currently nursing an injury is Torres. Reports from the Liverpool camp suggest the Spaniard will miss the Reds’ opening game against Arsenal, and like Rooney and Drogba you have to be concerned whether he’s actually going to last the distance this season. Torres is an extraordinary striker and Liverpool have no other A-grade forwards to share the goals around, but his history so far at Anfield is littered with time off for injuries and 15/2 simply isn’t big enough to tempt me to back him.

Robin Van Persie (Arsenal)

Van Persie is one of my favourite players to watch in world football, so I was as disappointed as anyone at how poorly he performed at the World Cup. Like Rooney, he was at best 70% fit during the tournament, which isn’t overly surprising I guess when you consider how long out of the game he’d been up until that point. And given how fragile his body is these days, 11/1 is just silly odds for him to win the Golden Boot. I wouldn’t bet on RVP at 22/1, especially now the goals at Arsenal will be shared between him, Chamakh, Bendtner and Fabregas.

Carlos Tevez (Man City)

Outside the big four names, Manchester City’s Carlos Tevez looks decent value at 15/1 with Betfair, although there are rumours that he’s unhappy at Eastlands. Even so, his 23 goals in the Premier League last season was mightily impressive and I think a speculative wager on the dogged Argentinean going all the way this time is a fair shout. City weren’t anything special last year and yet Tevez still did the business, so if Mancini’s men do improve this season, El Apache could bang in even more.

Frank Lampard (Chelsea)

I think the best value in the market lies with Frank Lampard each-way at 37/1. The England international scored 22 goals in the EPL last season, which is extraordinary for a midfielder and could be viewed as a bit of a freak, but with the best strikers in the division all looking injury-prone this year, it’s not inconceivable that he could score 22 goals again and win the competition. Certainly, each-way “Fat Frank” is an attractive proposition, especially when you consider only Rooney, Drogba and Cristiano Ronaldo have scored more Premier League goals than Lampard in the past five years.

Bet 1pt on Tevez to win the Golden Boot at 15/1 with Betfair

Bet 2pts each-way on Frank Lampard to finish in the Top Four at 37/1 with Betfair