Premier League Winner Picks - August 2010

Resident tipster Ed Gallois previews the 2010/11 Premier League title race and recommends TWO solid bets for the upcoming season.

Welcome back to Betasia.com for a new season of picks for the Premier League and Champions League. The start of the domestic season is always an exciting time for fans, and for us educated bettors it is even more mouth-watering as it marks the beginning of nine months of potentially taking the bookies to the cleaners. As Barack Obama would say: Bring. It. On.

We start off the season with a guide to who will win the Premier League. Coming soon will be an appraisal of the Premier League Golden Boot market, and of course pick packs for individual matches in both the EPL and Champions League will follow soon after.

The Premiership. If you look at the bookies’ odds there are only five sides in with a chance of lifting the trophy next May. They are Chelsea (9/5), Man Utd (14/5), Arsenal (7/1), Man City (7/1) and Liverpool (16/1).

Beyond that you are looking at speculative long shots only: Tottenham (41/1), Everton (150/1), Aston Villa (279/1), all the way down to Blackpool and West Brom (both 10,000/1).

Chelsea

Chelsea were last year’s Premier League and FA Cup winners, and they look to have strengthened their personnel in the off-season, so I can understand why they’re 9/5 favourites to make it back-to-back league wins. The departure of Michael Ballack (never really shined in a Chelsea shirt), Joe Cole (always injured) and Deco (past it) is more of a gentle nudge in the ribs rather than a body blow, especially considering Yossi Benayoun (Liverpool’s best player last season) moved south from Anfield earlier this summer and Benfica’s highly-rated Brazilian midfielder Ramires has just put pen to paper.

Key players such as John Terry, Frank Lampard and Didier Drogba will be keen to prove a point given how poorly they played at the World Cup, and having Michael Essien fit and available for selection is like signing a new £30 million player. With their experience and deep squad of top-class players to choose from, plus a manager who is used to winning, it’s hard to make a case against Chelsea, so I won’t. 9/5 is not a price that you can retire on if the bet comes in, but it’s too big for a side that in my view has about a 40% chance of retaining the title.

Man Utd

Manchester United are next up in the betting at 14/5, a price which at first seems quite generous given United are always there or thereabouts at the end of the season, but on reflection is far from tempting. Rooney is clearly still not match-fit and looks to me burnt out after last season’s heroics. I wouldn’t be surprised if he picks up a lot of niggling injuries this year and without his goals United usually struggle.

Mexico’s Javier Hernandez, who looked great at the World Cup and has shined in pre-season friendlies, looks a handy addition up front for the Red Devils, but he is untested in the EPL and the jury remains out on how he will fare at such a big club. After all, Berbatov was a proven hitman when he went to Old Trafford and look at him now.

United cannot be discounted in the title race, they have too much guile and class for that, but Giggs, Scholes and Van de Sar are not getting any younger, and I don’t see where the goals are coming from. When Christian Ronaldo was at United, they relied on him for goals. Now it is Rooney’s burden. Yet, as I’ve already pointed out, the White Pele is struggling for fitness and form and can’t be relied upon to win them most of their matches right now. Which is why 14/5 is a horrible price for United winning the title.

Arsenal

Arsenal are third equal in the betting at 7/1 along with Manchester City, and are much the better bet of the two to win the league. The Gunners finished a respectable third last season and look to have improved their squad over the summer by signing Morocco’s crack striker Marouane Chamakh. With Van Persie’s fitness still in doubt, Arsenal can’t rely on flat-track bully Bendtner to score their way to the title, so Chamakh is a much-needed addition to the squad.

Gallas is a big loss at the back, but new signing Laurent Koscielny should fill the gap, and there are rumours that Wenger is looking to add to the defence with a raid for Bosnia’s highly-rated Emir Spahic. Of course the key to Arsenal’s chances this season was Fabregas staying and it looks (for the time being) as if that is the case. Without their mercurial captain, who is the heartbeat of the side, I’d write off the Gunners immediately, but with him they are genuine contenders. I also think this could be the season when Nasri, Walcott and others step up to the plate, which makes 7/1 look too big, especially as an each-way bet.

Man City

Manchester City may have spent oodles of cash this summer as predicted, but Mancini has his work cut out developing them into a cogent force capable of challenging for the title. New additions of Yaya Toure, Jerome Boateng, David Silva and Aleksandar Kolarov look great on the face of it, but it’s pretty optimistic to expect them all to slot into place and have illustrious EPL careers from the off. Even the great Dennis Bergkamp took a season to adjust to the pace of the Premier League, and Yaya Toure (essentially a Barcelona reject these days) in particular will struggle I think.

For a team that couldn’t even snatch the last remaining Champions League qualification place last season – I watched the “decider” game at Eastlands where Tottenham ripped them apart – 7/1 is quite simply a ridiculous price for them taking home the winner’s trophy in the most competitive league in the world. Especially when you consider Mancini may be sacked within months of the start if the Blues don’t get off to a flyer. 20/1 would probably be a fair deal about City, and as such they should be avoided like the plague at current odds.

Liverpool

The final Premier League side in our list of contenders is Liverpool, who could be owned by China by the time you read this. If the deal does go through in the next week and Hodgson has £50 million to spend on a couple of world-class players, then 16/1 suddenly becomes an attractive price. Otherwise it isn’t in the slightest bit tempting. The Reds finished in 7th place last season, behind Aston Villa it should be noted, and don’t have a good enough squad to be realistic contenders over a long, hard season.

Holding on to Gerrard and Torres was a must for Hodgson and he’s done that and deserves credit for it, but it looks increasingly likely that Mascherano is off to Inter, which leaves a huge hole in their midfield. Joe Cole is not the answer and if Torres takes time to return to full fitness, which is looking likely, I could see the Pool really struggling for goals. Perish the thought if Torres gets a long-term injury. Relying on David Ngog and Dirk Kuyt to score you goals is not the sign of a champion-elect.

Bet 4pts on Chelsea to win the Premier League at 9/5 with Betfair

Bet 2pts on Arsenal each-way to finish in the top two at 7/1 with Totesport