EPL Betting Picks - 24-25 Apr 2010

Ed Gallois picks out two CRACKING bets for this weekend`s EPL matches.

Our speculative midweek gambles in the Champions League didn’t pay off, but that is the nature of the beast when betting big odds. We can’t beat the bookies every week, after all, and as long as we keep winning 4pt bets and losing 1pt wagers, we’ll end up with a healthy profit.

This weekend is of monstrous importance for many clubs in the English Premier League. After United’s last-gasp victory over Man City last Saturday and Chelsea’s defeat at White Hart Lane on the same day, the title race is now wide open again.

Tottenham’s recent excellent form has seen them claw their way back into pole position for fourth spot, but Man City are breathing down their necks and Aston Villa aren’t out of it yet.

Meanwhile, near the foot of the table, a three-way dogfight is taking place between West Ham, Hull and Burnley to avoid relegation.

In short, with three games to go until the end of the season, it’s crunch time.

Arsenal vs Man City

Arsenal are officially out of the title race and have only themselves to blame. Last weekend at Wigan the Gunners were 2-0 up and coasting with 10 minutes to go, but somehow contrived to lose the match 3-2. For a side with Premier League title aspirations, that is inexcusable, especially against a team near the bottom of the table. With key players missing for Arsene Wenger`s side and nothing to play for in the EPL, I think they are ripe for opposing in their final matches.

Man City should also take a long, hard look at themselves in the mirror after their lacklustre performance against United last weekend. It’s true a draw wouldn’t have been an awful result for them, but you have to show at least some ambition against United or they will come at you until they score, which of course they finally did with Scholes’ injury-time winner.

In many ways playing at home doesn’t suit City as they like to hit teams with pace on the break, which is why taking them with a ½ goal start at the Emirates is an excellent bet in my view. City have everything to play for in the race for fourth place and had been in great form before last weekend’s damp squib of a match. I expect them to bounce back with a vengeance on Saturday – Mancini’s job is on the line if they don`t qualify for the Champions League, remember – and at least get a draw against an apathetic and injury-ridden Arsenal.

Bet 4pts on Man City with a 1/2 goal start at 1.95 with Bet365

Everton vs Fulham

Sometimes the footballing planets align and a fantastic-looking bet emerges from the long grass. Taking Everton on the handicap at home against Fulham this weekend is such a bet.

For a start, Everton are virtually untouchable at home. The Toffeemen’s recent blip against West Ham aside, David Moyes’ side won their previous seven league matches at Goodison Park, beating Chelsea, United and Man City along the way, scoring a tasty 18 goals and letting in only 3 in the process. That’s incredible home form however you look at it.

Contrast that to Fulham who are one of the worst travellers in the EPL. Roy Hodgson’s side have won only one league game away from home all season, and even lost 2-0 at struggling Hull last month. Even bottom-of-the-table Portsmouth have won more games on the road.

Factor in Fulham’s epic midweek road trip to Hamburg in the Europa League, along with their gut-busting performance on the night and scant time to recover, and the bet looks even better. Then throw in that Fulham have nothing to play for in the EPL and their leading striker Bobby Zamora is out injured, and I hope you’ll agree we have a real gem on our hands.

Bet Everton on the handicap and bet big.

Bet 5pts on Everton giving up 1 1/4 goal start at 2.00 with Paddy Power.