EPL Betting Picks - 17-20 Apr 2010

Ed Gallois picks out three bets for this weekend`s EPL action.

I have a simple betting strategy for matches involving Wigan Athletic, the most inconsistent side in the Premiership. If they’re favourites, I oppose them; if they’re underdogs, I back them.

The strategy usually works, and it did in midweek as my 3-point pick of Portsmouth with a goal start against the Latics romped home with the two sides grinding out a soulless 0-0 draw.

On Sunday, Wigan take on title contenders Arsenal at home and are big underdogs with the bookies. I think you know where I’m going with this…

Elsewhere on the EPL schedule this weekend, Saturday brings two mouth-watering ties. At lunch-time GMT, Manchester City take on hated intercity rivals Manchester United at Eastlands, and at tea-time GMT, Tottenham face fellow Londoners and current league leaders Chelsea.

Luckily for us both matches are good betting opportunities as well as fantastic matches to sit down and watch with friends at the pub.

Man City vs Man Utd

When I first priced up this much-anticipated derby game, I ummed and aahed whether to give United a ¼ goal start on the handicap at odds on or have both teams off a level start with United odds against. In the end I went for the latter, so I was mildly surprised to see some bookmakers giving City a ¼ goal start at odds on.

Man City are in much better form than United, whose season has recently collapsed before their very own eyes. In their past two league matches, Roberto Mancini’s men have scored 11 goals and let in only two. Compare that to United who have conceded two goals and scored just once.

If United couldn’t beat Blackburn away from home last weekend, then I see no reason to think they should be favourites to win on the road against a free-scoring Manchester City who are 19 points ahead of Rovers with a game in hand.

Wayne Rooney is supposedly fit to play, but judging by his lame performance against Bayern Munich in the Champions League the talismanic goal-machine is obviously still carrying an injury. Which means United will have to rely on Berbatov, who is struggling for form, up front.

City, on the other hand, have super-speedy and super-confident Tevez and Bellamy to terrorise the opposition’s defence. I know whose corner I’d prefer to be in when it comes to scoring goals. As such I recommend a medium wager on the blue half of Manchester with a ¼ goal start.

Bet 3pts on Man City with a 1/4 goal start at 1.83 with Bet365

Man Utd won 1-0

Tottenham vs Chelsea

Another derby, another game priced poorly by the bookmakers in my opinion. There’s no way in the world that Spurs should be receiving ½ goal start on the handicap at home given their superlative record at White Hart Lane this season. Did the layers watch the north London clash between Tottenham and Arsenal in midweek? I did and I thought Spurs deserved to win 2-1, even if they had to soak up a bit of pressure near the end of the match.

Their FA Cup semi-final horror-show apart, Harry Redknapp’s side have been in excellent form lately, winning five out of their last six EPL matches. I still think they have something of the flat-track bully about them, but there’s no denying they are on a run of very good results. They also have everything to play for in the hotly-contested race for fourth place.

Chelsea are clearly also in great nick, and although they struggled to put away Bolton 1-0 on Tuesday night, the Premiership title is still theirs for the taking. Of course they are risky to oppose given the players at their disposal, but even the best teams don’t always win away from home. In fact, it’s just over 50% of the time for Chelsea, and so when you factor in how good Spurs are at White Hart Lane, Ancelotti’s men really shouldn’t be as low as 10/11 on to win this match.

Over the past three seasons, Tottenham beat Chelsea twice and drew with them once at White Hart Lane in the league. Add this to the other factors already outlined, and taking Spurs with ½ a goal start on the handicap at home is a cracking bet.

Bet 4pts on Tottenham with ½ goal start at 2.00 with Betinternet.

Tottenham won 2-1

Wigan vs Arsenal

Without wanting to state the obvious, there is a large discrepancy in quality between these two sides. You only have to look at the table to realise that. You may think, therfore, it’s probably about right that Wigan are getting a goal start at home in this match. But, as we’ve already discovered, Wigan overperform when they’re underdogs, which makes them a speculative punt with a full ball in their pocket.

I don’t think this is a fantastic bet simply because of the gulf in class between the two teams, but with Fabregas, Arshavin and Vermaelen all missing for the Gunners, Wigan – the most inconsistent side in the land – are worth a small wager to hold Arsene Wenger’s side to a draw.

Bet 1pt on Wigan with a 1 goal start at 1.91 with Paddy Power.

Wigan won 3-2