EPL Betting Picks - 13-14 Apr 2010

Ed Gallois delivers one solid pick for Tuesday and Wednesday`s EPL action.

After failing to take all three points against Blackburn on Sunday – as this column predicted – Manchester United’s title chances are effectively over. Unfortunately, that nice win on the handicap was cancelled out by West Ham defeating Sunderland 1-0 at Upton Park, resulting in our other bet of the weekend losing. Don’t worry: we won’t be backing the Black Cats to cover a handicap away from home again.

After the weekend’s smattering of Premier League games, the drip-drip of EPL action continues into the working week. On Tuesday evening Chelsea will look to consolidate their position at the top of the table against lowly Bolton, and on Wednesday night Arsenal face North London rivals Tottenham in a game that has repercussions for both the title race and the dash for this year’s highly-contested fourth place.

Elsewhere on Wednesday evening, Wigan Athletic take on Portsmouth at home, while Aston Villa host Everton in Birmingham. FA Cup finalists Pompey look to be getting too big a start against a super-inconsistent Wigan side, more of which later.

The eye-catching Asian handicap of the week is undoubtedly Bolton receiving a 2 ¼ goal start at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea. Eye-catching in size, but sadly not in value as the current league leaders average just over 2 ½ goals at home this season and are eminently capable of beating Bolton by a hatful.

On the flip side, I think it’s a tactic loaded with danger to rely on Chelsea winning by three clear goals, especially as Bolton are not yet safe from relegation and have a lot to play for still, so we should leave the match alone from a betting perspective.

The handicap lines for the Arsenal vs Tottenham derby and the Villa vs Everton clash also look about right and are best avoided. Which leaves us with one bet for this week`s EPL games:

Wigan vs Portsmouth

At the risk of offending any Spurs fans who read this column, I was very happy to watch Portsmouth beat Tottenham 2-0 in extra-time at Wembley on Sunday and progress to the final of the FA Cup. Pompey have some of the best fans in football and there is something romantic about a club who’ve been to hell and back this season making it through to the final of the most prestigious domestic cup in the world.

Did they deserve to beat Spurs? Yes, I think they probably did. Of course Tottenham had plenty of chances – that was to be expected as they are a much better side – but Portsmouth got at them and tried to create chances from the opening minute to the final whistle. Manager Avram Grant knows his team are vulnerable at the back, so it was actually a smart move to try and outscore Spurs instead of attempting to contain them.

Now that Portsmouth have been relegated, you can sense the weight has been lifted from the players’ shoulders, allowing them to play with a certain freedom. The same cannot be said of Wigan’s players, whose inconsistent form all season has seen the club once again become dragged into a battle at the wrong end of the table.

Wigan’s recent home form is a perfect snapshot of their inconsistency: two wins, two draws and two defeats. It’s almost as if someone chooses their results by random. Therefore, I would be loathe to back them giving up any kind of start on the handicap as you simply don’t know which Wigan side will turn up. Will it be the Wigan that beat Liverpool 1-0 at home in March or will it be the Wigan that lost 3-0 at home to Tottenham the month before?

Taking Porstmouth with a full goal start seems a smart tactic then. If fluid, pass-and-move Wigan turn up and win by two goals or more, we lose, but there’s just as much chance of rubbish Wigan taking to the field and us winning the bet comfortably. The difference is that if pass-and-move Wigan win by only a goal we get our stake back. And Wigan have only scored a miserly 14 goals at the DW stadium all season. That’s seven less than Burnley’s 21 goals to put it into perspective.

So with Wigan shy in front of goal and as inconsistent as they come, along with the fact that Portsmouth are on a high from their FA Cup win and under no pressure to get results in the EPL, I think the away side are a solid bet with a goal start. As such, I recommend a medium wager on the Blue Army. Play up Pompey.

Bet 3pts on Portsmouth with 1 goal start at 1.90 with Betinternet.

Portsmouth drew 0-0 with Wigan