EPL Picks – 03-04 Apr 2010

Ed Gallois delivers one solid bet on this weekend`s EPL matches and one STUNNING value bet.

With a small profit in our pocket from the midweek Champions League games (quel surprise Inter grinded out a 1-0 win), it’s back to the Premier League and one of the most anticipated domestic games of the year: No.1 vs No.2, or Manchester United vs Chelsea. The winner of the match – if indeed there is a winner; most people seem to think it will end in a draw – will be heavy favourites to take the title with only a few EPL matches left to play this season.

Elsewhere on the fixture list there are many other important games as the race for fourth place intensifies, and of course the dreaded trapdoor looms for those sides near the foot of the table.

As your resident EPL tipster, my job is to always pick out the best value Premier League bets on offer, and I believe I have one solid bet for you this weekend – Man United off a level start at Old Trafford – and one STUNNING bet – Man City giving away ¾’s of a goal at Burnley.

The rationale for each bet and how much to wager on the match is explained below, so keep on scrolling.

Man United vs Chelsea

It’s once in a blue moon that bookies offer United off a level start at home, so it’s worth finding out why.

One of the key reasons has to be Rooney’s absence through injury. Like England, United are heavily reliant on the ‘White Pele’ and his zillions of goals. Another important factor is Chelsea`s goalscoring record in their previous two EPL matches. Twelve goals is some total.

Throw in news that Drogba will apparently be fit for the tie at Old Trafford, coupled with United’s defeat to Bayern Munich in midweek, plus games are coming thick and fast for Ferguson’s men, and we’re starting to see how the layers think United shouldn’t be giving out a start on the handicap.

Is this an entirely accurate picture of the two teams’ chances on Saturday, though? I’m not so sure. Rooney’s loss cannot be overstated, but United do have a pretty good replacement in Berbatov, who, contrary to popular opinion, has a decent strike-rate this season.

The rest of the United team remain the same and are as formidable as ever. After all, it would be odd to argue that United’s EPL and CL success over the past few years has been entirely down to Rooney.

I expect a reaction from those same United players this weekend as they threw away their lead against Bayern Munich in midweek and my spies at Old Trafford tell me that Ferguson gave one of his infamous hairdryer performances after the match. It’s also worth noting that United’s record after defeats this season is outstanding, especially when their next match is at home.

As for Chelsea’s recent EPL form, there’s no denying they’ve bounced back brilliantly from their Champions League disappointment, but you do have to question the quality and desire of the opposition they beat 5-0 and 7-1. Portsmouth are notoriously lightweight, as shown by their position at the foot of the table, whereas Villa may be a decent side but reports this week of manager Martin O’Neill resigning suggest the club is in dire straits behind the scenes.

A lot of newspaper pundits are tipping the draw for this game, which is far from a poor recommendation. However, I think better value lies in taking United on the handicap. If United win – and they’ve won 88% of their games at home this season – we win; if they draw, we get out money back. That’s good value in my book and I suggest a medium wager on the Red Devils off a level start.

Bet 2pts on Man United off a level handicap at 1.95 with Canbet.

Chelsea won 2-1

Burnley vs Man City

United’s great inter-city rivals Manchester City face a considerably easier task this weekend as they take on second-from-bottom Burnley away from home. I have to admit I did a double-take when I first saw the handicap line for this match. I was expecting Man City to be giving up a goal and more likely a goal and a quarter to the struggling Clarets. In fact, they’re only handing out ¾’s of a goal and as such are fantastic value.

Overall, Burnley are the worst form side in the Premiership, having lost seven of their last eight games. That takes some doing. At home they are just as abysmal, losing recently to Blackburn (who are awful on the road), Wolves (improved of late but hardly world-beaters) and Portsmouth (at the bottom of the table for a reason).

If these three low-ranking sides can beat Burnley at home, Man City, who are currently 5th in the table and still have a lot to play for, certainly can. Carlos Tevez is in great nick as usual – his hat-trick against Wigan on Monday was richly deserved – and surely will be too much to handle for Burnley’s beleaguered defence.

Maybe a better manager could get the best out of Burnley’s poor players and give City a game, but Brian Laws is comfortably the worst manager in the Premiership and I can’t see anything other than a blue win in this tie. I will placing a sizeable wager on City collecting all three points on Saturday. I suggest you follow suit as this is one of the best value bets of the season in my opinion.

Bet 5pts on Man City at -3/4 goals (2.00) with Stan James.

Man City won 6-1