EPL Picks – 27-29 Mar 2010

Ed Gallois recommends FOUR stand-out bets for this weekend`s EPL action. Plus, two season bets.

With our big-stake Everton bet coming in against Chelsea in the last round of EPL matches, things are starting to look up in our battle against the bookies. With four, yes four, cracking bets available this weekend, I’m optimistic that our bank balances will look even rosier come Monday morning. Plus, I’ll also be recommending two season bets that are great value. All for free on Betasia.com.

Saturday’s matches

Birmingham vs Arsenal

Birmingham are being offered a full goal start on the handicap against Arsenal, which is at least a ¼ goal too high in my opinion. The Blues have lost only two games at home this season, which is the same number of defeats as high-flying Arsenal at Fortress Emirates. Arsene Wenger’s side are undoubtedly on a great run of results (six wins from six games), but they only just scraped a 2-1 win at Hull in their last away match, and Birmingham are a lot better than Hull at home.

Vermaelen is suspended and Gallas is still out injured, so the Gunners’ back line looks vulnerable. If Arsenal do concede a goal, they would then have to score three past Birmingham for us to lose the bet. That seems very unlikely as Alex McLeish’s men have only conceded a penny-pinching ten goals all season at St Andrews.

Bet 3pts on Birmingham at + 1 goal (2.00) with Paddy Power.

Birmingham drew 1-1 with Arsenal

Hull City vs Fulham

Hull were unlucky to lose at Portsmouth last weekend and new manager Iain Dowie at least seems to be having a slight effect on the club’s morale. They are still a poor side, however, and from a level start on the handicap I can’t fancy them against Fulham, even if the Cottagers are notoriously bad away from home. A definite no-bet.

NO BET

Chelsea vs Aston Villa

Chelsea got back to winning ways in midweek, thrashing Portsmouth 5-0 at Fratton Park, while Villa dropped points in a disappointing draw at home to lowly Sunderland. These contrasting performances seem to have caused the bookies to overreact in their betting lines because there’s no way a decent outfit like Villa – who are unbeaten in ten – should be getting a 1 ¼ goal start at odds against. Especially against a club that are on the edge of falling apart on and off the pitch, if newspaper reports are to be believed.

Martin O’Neill’s side have only lost three times away from home this season which is a Premiership best. They’ve also only conceded 12 goals on the road from 14 games. Again, a Premiership best. Given that we win even if Chelsea are victorious by a single goal margin, I think this is a very solid bet.

Bet 3pts on Aston Villa at + 1 1/4 goal (2.10) with Ladbrokes.

Chelsea won 7-1

Tottenham vs Portsmouth

Given the hot streak of form Tottenham are in at the moment and the shambles that is currently Portsmouth football club, Spurs should win this at a canter. However, I’m hesitant to back them to win by two clear goals on the handicap as they have too many off-days for my liking. If you disagree and fancy a bet on the game, definitely go with Spurs, but I’ll be keeping my powder dry.

NO BET

West Ham vs Stoke

While new West Ham chairman David Sullivan goes ballistic on the club website’s messageboard, I suggest you snap up Betfair’s generous price of 7/2 about the Hammers getting relegated. Zola’s side have lost five on the spin and are a club in freefall. There’s always one Premiership outfit who are “too big to go down”. This season it’s West Ham and they’re definitely not too big to go down.

As for the match against Stoke, I think it’s probably best avoided given the away side are only getting a ¼ goal start on the handicap, plus there’s better value elsewhere. As bad as West Ham are of late, Stoke are more likely to force a draw at Upton Park than win and that means only winning on half our stake. If you fancy a wager on the match, take Stoke, but I’ll be leaving it alone.

Bet on West Ham to be relegated at 7/2 on Betfair.

Wolves vs Everton

In the space of a couple of weeks, Wolves have gone from being one of the relegation favourites to 6/1 outsiders. And for good reason, too: back-to-back wins on the road and a well-earned point at Villa Park has seen them race up the table. They’re in great nick, then, so it’s a shame they’re up against one of the form teams in the Premiership this weekend. Everton have won seven of their last ten and are practically untouchable at home. Away from Goodison Park they are at least slightly vulnerable, but I wouldn’t want to bet against them right now. I think the bookies have got the line about right in this match-up, so we should steer clear from a betting perspective.

NO BET

Bolton vs Man Utd

Bolton have netted ten points from their last four home games and look a good bet to overcome their 1 ¼ goal handicap against Man Utd at the Reebok Stadium. Apart from being a derby match which will help lessen the skill advantage that United possess, I can’t see Alex Ferguson telling his troops to go hell-for-leather in this game given that they have a crucial Champions League match in Germany only two days later.

If United go one goal up, it’s very possible that Rooney will be rested, minimising the chances of a masterclass from the league’s top goalscorer. Rooney may even start on the bench given that Bayern lie in wait. As such, anything more than a goal start to Bolton looks too big in my opinion. With that extra ¼ goal cushion in our favour, I think we can at least hope to win on half of our stake and perhaps more.

Bet 2pts on Bolton at + 1 1/4 goal (1.90) with Betinternet.

Man Utd won 4-0

Sunday’s matches

Burnley vs Blackburn

Blackburn are hard to beat at home, as they proved against Chelsea last weekend, but they`re dismal away from Ewood Park, while Burnley are pretty much unbackable under any circumstances. A level handicap seems about right to me, so we should stay clear of betting on this game.

NO BET

Liverpool vs Sunderland

Liverpool look good to win this match comfortably given their superlative home record and Sunderland’s woeful past travels. The Reds have won six from their last six at Anfield and with Gerrard and Torres back playing at somewhere approaching their best, they should have far too much firepower in the locker for a side that’s lost a whopping 66% of games away from home this season. This is the bet of the weekend for me: a decent side with a great home record against a poor side with awful away stats. Liverpool can easily cover the handicap and I wouldn’t be surprised if this was a three or four goal rout.

The Reds are also of some interest to us in the long-term betting markets. Ladbrokes currently go 7/2 about Liverpool finishing in the top four this season, which is value in my book. Benitez’s men have one of the easiest run-ins I’ve seen in years, whereas Spurs still have to play United, Chelsea, Man City and Arsenal. I think Tottenham could drop points against all of those sides. Roberto Mancini`s Man City are still in with a chance, but they’re much too inconsistent for my liking; Villa, I fear, simply aren’t clinical enough in front of goal to maintain a serious challenge for fourth spot.

Bet 4pts on Liverpool at - 1 1/2 goal (2.00) with Ladbrokes.

Bet on Liverpool to finish in the top four at 7/2 with Ladbrokes.

Liverpool won 3-0

Monday’s match

Man City vs Wigan

Any game involving Wigan at present should be avoided like the plague combined with SARS combined with genital warts. They are the most inconsistent team in the Premiership by a country mile and pretty much impossible to read from a betting perspective. They could conceivably record a shock 1-0 win at Eastlands or lose 7-0. Bet on this match at your peril.

NO BET