EPL Picks – 20-21 Mar 2010

Ed Gallois dishes out two A-grade picks for this weekend`s EPL action.

They say a week is a long time in politics; in the Premier League it’s more like 24 hours:

Monday – Perma-tanned crooner and Hull City boss Phil Brown is sacked. Or put on “gardening leave” as they like to say in these situations. His replacement is Iain Dowie – a journeyman manager and Davros from Dr Who lookalike.

Tuesday – Aston Villa win their first ever match in March under Martin O’Neill. “The hoodoo is broken” report the papers.

Wednesday – Mourinho comes back to haunt Chelsea and after a season of goodwill to “tactical genius” Ancelotti, journalists declare the Italian manager is “over-rated”.

Thursday – Fulham record what must be the best result in their history, beating Juventus 4-1 and knocking the Old Lady out of the Europa League. An ex-pro who played under Hodgson at Blackburn comes on the radio and says the result is no surprise: he did the same “miracle work” at Rovers (actually, they were relegated and Hodgson was sacked.) Meanwhile, Liverpool’s Riera is suspended for slagging off Benitez and the Reds “steady the ship” against Lille.

Friday – Arsenal fans’ faces hit the floor when they hear they’ll face Barca in the quarter-finals of the Champions League. United fans book their hotel rooms in Madrid for the final.

Onto the weekend, where the fast-paced action in the world of the EPL looks set to continue with Liverpool’s mouth-watering trip to Old Trafford dominating the footballing horizon. Incidentally, whereas last week was tough for value-seeking bettors, this week sees two stand-out picks. Fill your boots.

Man Utd vs Liverpool

United seemingly have everything going for them. They’re 6/4 joint favourites for the league, as low as 3/1 to win the Champions League, and in Wayne Rooney have one of the best players in the world playing the best football of his career. Only a fool would bet against them, right? Perhaps. But to my eyes they’re not as good as last season (even if last season was a vintage year). Rooney has undoubtedly upped his game since Ronaldo left, but it’s a hole that can’t really be filled. After all, Ronaldo was the best player in the EPL last season by a country mile.

So while United are undoubtedly in great nick, especially since Ferdinand and Vidic started playing together again at the back, and will continue to steamroll sides outside the top four, they are far from invincible. Especially against sides such as Liverpool, who are still their biggest rivals, whatever Man City fans think.

Last season the Reds beat United 4-1 at Old Trafford and with Torres and Gerrard now back to their best, they can take a point off United, which is all we need given that Ferguson’s team are handing out a 3/4 goal start on the handicap.

Without Gerrard or Torres, Liverpool are less fanciable than the plague, but with both of them injury-free they can give any side in Europe a game. Which makes them very backable with such a large start against their biggest rivals. Let’s not forget the Merseysiders will be hellbent on denting United’s EPL hopes because a record fourth consecutive title will take the Red Devils to 19 titles in total - one above Liverpool`s haul. History means a lot to Liverpool football club.

Bet 3pts on Liverpool at + 3/4 goal (2.00) with Paddy Power.

Man Utd beat Liverpool 2-1

Blackburn vs Chelsea

The good news for Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich this week is he won a public apology and libel damages from an Italian publisher over allegations that he is a compulsive gambler. The bad news is that his club crashed out of the Champions League (the one competition Abramovich wants to win more than any other) to a club who are managed by Jose Mourinho, who he sacked. One senses that the good news didn’t outweigh the bad.

As low as the morale is at Stamford Bridge right now, I expect Chelsea to pick themselves up by Sunday because players like Terry (love him or loathe him), Lampard and Ballack are winners and the EPL is still theirs to win. In theory then, given their respective positions in the table, they should have no problem beating Blackburn.

But take a look at the stats behind the table and it tells a slightly different story. Sure, Rovers are not one of the better sides in the Premier League, but they’re actually pretty good at home of late. They’ve won their last four on the bounce at Ewood Park, albeit against average opposition, and are no longer candidates for relegation. Chelsea, meanwhile, have only won two from their previous five on the road and are in danger of letting the title slip from between their fingers. As such, one and a quarter goal start is way too much of a headstart for the hosts, even if Chelsea’s record at Blackburn is very good over the past few seasons. This is a bet I will be placing a reasonable amount of money on and I suggest you follow suit.

Bet 4pts on Blackburn at + 1 1/4 goal (1.90) with Betinternet.

Blackburn drew 1-1 with Chelsea

Extra-time bet

With United and Chelsea both potentially tripping up this weekend, and Arsenal very likely to beat a poor West Ham side at home on Saturday, a small wager on the Gunners at 11/4 (Boylesports, Betfred, Victor Chandler) to win the title looks a decent bet, especially as the remainder of their games this season all look winnable.