EPL Picks – 13-15 Mar 2010

Ed Gallois advises punters to keep their powder dry this weekend. Why?

After watching Manchester United and Arsenal destroy their opponents in the Champions League in midweek, it’s hard not to come to the conclusion that the top tier of the Premiership remains the top tier of world football.

Even without Fabregas, Arsenal’s best player, the Gunners smashed Porto 5-0 and the very average Bendtner got a hat-trick. United’s demolition of AC Milan, meanwhile, was almost embarrassing to watch in its one-sidedness. It certainly didn’t help Milan’s cause that their players treated the match like a game of beach football – Ronaldinho, in particular, seemed to be mentally planning his summer holiday for much of the 90 minutes – but the bottom line is the Italians just couldn’t cope with United’s superior workrate, superior pace on the flanks, and superior finishing.

So it’s easy to see why the Premier League is so popular with fans worldwide. And with punters, too. After all, people are much more likely to bet on games that they can watch on TV. However, there is a downside to this huge level of interest. The vast amount of money that is gambled on the EPL every weekend brings with it a laser-like focus from bookmakers. It’s quite understandable really: they stand to lose a fortune if they get their odds wrong on such heavy-turnover matches.

Sadly, for us value hunters, this means the layers rarely get their odds wrong on EPL matches. This weekend is a perfect example. Out of ten matches, I can only recommend one marginal bet – Stoke with a 1/4 goal start at home to Villa (it would be a proper bet if Agbonlahor wasn’t returning for Villa) - and that’s after a lot of scratching around.

The rest of the handicaps are spot on. Of course, I could probably build a case for certain teams if you put a gun to my head, but without the threat of my brains being blasted to kingdom come, I can’t do that. Not when it’s your money at stake.

As always our guiding light has to be value, and we have to be big enough to accept there is little of that about this weekend. Sometimes a no bet is a good bet; the truly smart gambler knows when to keep his powder dry.

If you simply must have a bet to get the juices flowing this weekend, then:

Bet 0.5pts on Stoke at + 1/4 goal (1.95) with Bet365.

Stoke drew 0-0 with Villa