EPL Picks - 27 Feb 2010

Ed Gallois dishes up two cracking picks for this weekend`s EPL action.

Saturday sees ex-England captain and part-time lothario John Terry face ex-Chelsea team-mate and now ex-England Wayne Bridge - who’s still smarting over his ex-girlfriend playing around with ex-friend John Terry - as leaders Chelsea take on Champions League hopefuls Manchester City at Stamford Bridge.

It’s clearly the tie of the weekend, for the front pages as well as the back, but not for shrewd, value-hunting punters. Chelsea have been practically invincible at home in the EPL this season (12 wins, 1 draw; 39 goals for, 8 against) and even without some of their key players they should put City, who have their own injury problems and have been horrible on the road of late, to the sword. A handicap of 1 ¼ goals to Mancini’s men seems about right.

Instead, let’s take a look at a couple of more prosaic match-ups on offer this weekend. After all, bookies put a lot more care into pricing up glamour ties as the betting turnover for them is usually higher.

Birmingham vs Wigan

Blues manager Alex McLeish has rightly been lauded this season for getting the best out of a mediocre Birmingham side. Currently they stand in 10th place, which has predominantly been achieved by playing the same team week in, week out. There are signs, however, that the side are approaching burn-out, having lost three out of their last five matches.

Their main problem, and has been for some time, is hitting the back of the net. Twelve goals from 13 home games is a pretty awful record and gives me confidence that even struggling Wigan have a chance at St Andrews. The Latics are on a dire run of results themselves, but part of that is down to the awful playing surface at the DW Stadium (which is shared with a local rugby team), which hinders their continental passing game.

They’re certainly not as bad as the table makes out and have more than enough in the tank to hold tired Birmingham to a draw.

Bet 1pt on Wigan at +1/2 goal (1.95) with Betinternet

Birmingham won 1-0

Bolton V Wolves

Consider this:

1. Bolton have won only once in their past 10 games.
2. Bolton have failed to score in their last five games.
3. Bolton got crushed 4-0 by Tottenham in midweek.
4. Bolton are seemingly no better under new manager Owen Coyle.
5. Bolton have won three games at the Reebok all season.

Would you, therefore, make Bolton ½ goal favourites on the handicap against a dogged Wolves side who are fighting for their lives, in decent-ish form, and who recently beat Champions League contenders Tottenham in the league?

No, neither would I, which makes this a cracking bet.

Bet 3pts on Wolves +1/2 goal (1.90) with Ladbrokes

Bolton won 1-0