World Cup 2006 Preview

The first thing to say about this World Cup is that Brazil look like the obvious winners. They have the best players and, crucially, most of them play for clubs in Europe so they are acclimatised to the conditions. They have no injury problems, they had a good preparation for the competition and are proven winners. At around the 5/2 mark with most bookies they are not generously priced (having been as big as 4/1 when the betting opened) but there will be plenty of big punters tucking in at that price and I can see why they would.

That said, in a knockout competition anything can happen and Brazil, like any other team, only have to lose concentration for 30 minutes during the knockout stages to be eliminated. In betting on the outright winner of a competition like this I prefer to have a team at decent odds. I tend to only have smallish bets on these sort of markets, saving my money for individual games and some specials markets which will have been compiled by some spotty 23-year-old earning £18,000 a year and with little experience of interpreting sports statistics.

So, who are the interesting outsiders? In competitions like the World Cup and European Championship I tend to look for teams that have a core of players who know each other and have played together for a consistent period of time; it helps a lot if they like each other and there is a strong sense of self-belief. They need to have shown decent form in the run up to the competition but they do not have to have won every game or to have one star player. The other crucial element is that they need a relatively easy passage to the knockout stages. Greece and the Czech Republic fitted this profile in Euro 2006 (they were my selections) and the same profile also works when picking winning teams in American sports. What you cannot predict is whether they will manage to stay injury free through the competition – if you back a team that is doing well and then lose a couple of first squad players (especially if both players are in the same part of the field eg defenders) then I would urge you to get on Betfair and lay them back as they will almost certainly under-perform from that point onwards.

Unfortunately the team that best fits the profile listed above is not in the World Cup. I had a good sized bet on Turkey to win in Germany at 66/1 and they somehow contrived to fail to qualify in a two leg knockout to get to the finals. Bother. I think they would have done well in Germany and would have had plenty of ‘home’ support in most stadiums.

There are plenty of teams that I can eliminate without too many worries.

England is the first to go. They are far, far too short in the betting. The main reason for this is that most soccer bookies are based in England and are as misguidedly optimistic as the tabloid press; the second is that there are more mug punters in England than anywhere else and they will happily back England with no regard for the odds. The third reason to avoid them is that they look seriously short of striking power. Rooney cannot be fully fit and, to my eyes at least, Owen is some way of his peak fitness. The fourth is that England’s recent form is not good enough to justify them being second favourites; a 6-0 win over the Reggae Boyz as the last game before the tournament may have been a morale booster but the Jamaicans were on a par with Colchester United in form terms. Obviously I would like to see England win the World Cup but I won’t be financially involved.


Italy was one of the teams I thought could do well three months ago but everything has gone wrong for them since. The developing scandal involving match fixing in Serie A (and possibly the Champions League too) is bringing new and damaging information every day, often involving people directly involved with the Azzurri, and it is hard to see how they can focus properly on the competition under that sort of pressure. In fact several members of the squad have admitted as much and it will be hard for them to perform well. If you fancy backing them I would wait until after the group stages when you have seen how they have handled the pressure as I do not expect them to shorten up too much before the knockout stages. They certainly look like weak odds-on shots for Group E.

There are plenty of people who will think that the hosts are a good bet but all the vibes from the German camp suggest they should be left well alone. The German tabloid press are already worried and are going to turn on Klinsmann if the first result is not an impressive victory. They have a relatively soft group to qualify from but I would not be surprised to see them struggle and I will be laying them at 1.47 for the group and at 1.10 to qualify from the group.

That eliminates three of the top five in the betting.

Argentina have drifted in the betting in recent weeks, I think mainly because bettors want to see if they can get through the ‘Group of Death’ (vs Holland, Ivory Coast and Serbia/Montenegro) before investing their dosh. They clearly have the players to win the tournament but conditions are not ideal for them and their preparation has not impressed me. At the prices I can pass on having a wager.

France is next in the betting at 14/1 and plenty of pundits have gone for them as the value choice. The two factors that seem to have swayed them is that France’s draw should steer them clear of Brazil and Spain (assuming they can win their group) and the enormous influence of Thierry Henry. My feeling is that the French defence is simply not good enough and it is likely to be found out in the later stages of the competition. As a trading bet the 14/1 is not bad as I expect France to shorten up but I don’t personally see them as the outright winners.

Spain and Holland are the only two countries other than those already mentioned that are shorter than 20/1. Holland at 16/1 has improved massively under Marco van Basten and they have a decent line up of players who look World Cup class. The main problem is that we do not really know how well they will play together. If Ruud van Nistlerooy, Arjen Robben and Robin van Persie all find a way to fit together in the same team then we could see a really amazing strikeforce. But the first two named are not always the best team players and you take a lot on trust. At the prices there are far worse bets than Holland though and I expect them to get through the Group of Death.

Spain at 16/1 has some appeal but they are perennial bottlers in the big tournaments and with Brazil their likely opponents in the quarter finals they are probably best swerved.

Instead, have a wager on their main rivals in group H, Ukraine. All the focus is on their striker, Shevchenko, who most pundits would agree is currently the best forward in European football. He has been carrying a knee injury this season but is apparently fully fit and will be the star in a very solid side. They qualified for the World Cup by topping a tough group which included Turkey, Denmark and Greece and lost just one of the 12 matches they played in that group. Like Greece in Euro 2004, most of the players are domestically based and play for a small group of clubs – Dynamo Kiev, Dnipro and Shaktar Donetsk – and while they are not the most talented group ever, they have played together for some time and are known for their tactical acumen. At a massive 79/1 on Betfair (some 84/1 is being matched, so might be worth asking for that) they look easily the best value bet in the tournament.

The other outsider I like is Costa Rica. They have little World Cup pedigree but they were reasonably impressive in qualifying and are definitely the least exposed side in the competition. They play as a good unit (I saw them beat USA 3-0, albeit against a weakened American side, and they were impressive) and have no particular stars but they remind me of a team like Charlton in the Premiership – not ever capable of winning it but regularly under-rated. I have bet the Costa Ricans at 5.60 to qualify from Group A and at 25/1 to win the group.

Of the minnows, I expect Japan to perform better than expected – their domestic league has improved hugely in quality in the last four years – and the USA will be a lot better as a crop of young players has come through since World Cup 2002. The Americans are amazingly ranked fifth in the world in FIFA rankings and while that is surely a joke, they will perform a lot better than the average football writer would have you believe.

Those who like speciality markets will have plenty to choose from in the World Cup. Anyone thinking of betting on the number of red and yellow cards should bear in mind that the FIFA directive to referees issued this week suggests there will be a lot of cards. The refs have been told to crack down on diving and other acts of gamesmanship and I should think there will be a card-fest early on in the tournament. What normally happens is that this then leads to a lot of criticism that there are too many cards and then half way through the tournament there will be a FIFA directive to referees to calm down a bit. My suggestion would be to let the initial bookings markets soar on plenty of cards and then get short or bet low after 8 or 9 matches.

Those thinking of betting on goals should bear in mind that the World Cup official ball is slightly different from that used across most European leagues. It is a glued ball of two panels instead of the normal stitched format. My spies tell me it will move in the air a lot more than the average ball we are used to and goalkeepers may struggle with it, especially early on. I am also told it is extremely difficult to handle in the wet, so if you see a game played during a thunderstorm you could do a lot worse than bet the ‘over 2.5 goals’ market.

The only other bet I have had is on the Togo top goalscorer. Togo really do look out of their league and Group G is a tough one with France, South Korea and Switzerland to contend against. Blue Square offer 7/2 about there being no top goalscorer for Togo (ie they score zero goals in the tournament). Coral also offer 8/13 (1.61) about Togo scoring between zero and two goals inclusive, which for those who like a short price bet seems like very fair value.

Check out all the World Cup betting at bookies.com