Internationals 12 and 13 Nov

World Cup qualifiers

With ten teams fighting it out for five places at the World Cup, you can sure that all sides will be playing with 100% conviction in these matches. The main thing to consider that in these first legs of games that are this important, the away side will be looking to contain the home side and go back home with a 0-0 or 1-1 result. The home side will also be nervous and it is a definite disadvantage to play at home first in this type of contest.

On that basis, I have to avoid Spain as they are priced by the bookies on the basis of how this game would be in normal circumstances and the handicap just looks too large. They should win easily but I am not going to risk my money on it with a 1 1/4 goal handicap.

The bookies seem to think Uruguay are certain to win against Australia but I am not so sure. The Aussies have a decent team and they are getting bette r each year while Forlan - their best player - will not play for Uruguay. Carini is in goal because first choice keeper Viera is not fit and I just wonder whether the bookies have taken this into account enough. The Aussies are good value with a goal start and are worth a one point bet at 1.85.

Turkey look fair value to defeat a Swiss side which likes to play for a draw whenever possible. They looked much weaker than the Turks in qualifying but I am put off risking my own money by the absence of two top players, Vogel and Frei. If I had to have a bet here though I would take Turkey +1/4 at 1.95.

The other games don't interest me. The Czechs on their form of two years ago would be a bet but they seem to have lost their way a bit and no wager has to be the wise course of action.


International friendlies

Betting in international friendlies is usually the fastest way to lose your money. There are too many random factors such as managers and players not caring about the result, the top players only playing 45 minutes and then some less good players being put in to get some experience and the fact that often these fixtures are perceived by all involved as a waste of time.

If you have to have a bet this weekend, it may be worth having a small bet on the England vs Argentina game at 3.20. Both sides have said they will be putting out strong squads and are treating it is a relatively important fixture. Importantly this is a bit of a grudge match - both on and off the pitch - so there is reason to believe that even if one side trails by a goal with 10 minutes to play they will not simply give up. But I am happy not to waste my carefully earned money on games like this, so I will not be having a bet.