World Cup qualifiers

There are an awful lot fo meaningless matches tonight, with so many teams having already qualified for the World Cup and therefore not minding hugely about what happens in their games.

There are still a couple of potential bets despite this and I have decided to look at sides playing in games that do not matter. This is a risky strategy but two games stand out to me as offering decent value, albeit that bets should be kept to low stakes.

The first is to oppose England, who host Poland in a top of the table clash. In theory this was going to be a game in which England had to win to top the table and guarantee a place at Germany 2006. In practice, thanks to the way results have fallen in other groups, both sides are guaranteed to qualify and this is now a meaningless fixture. However I do feel that Poland are clearly as good as England at the moment and that they will have every incentive to get a decent result tonight and top the group. Unlike the English players, the Poles seem to really care about how they do and would rather finish top than second. They have proved in qualifying to be an excellent side and their recent form is a hell of a lot better than England's 1-0 win against Austria and their loss to Northern Ireland. England have looked clueless in recent games and while they may perform better now the pressure is off, I suspect most players will be thinking about their weekend club fixture more than the result of this game. There is of course a risk the Poles are too but from what I have read they will be trying 100% and Poland are worth a one point bet +3/4 at 2.05.

Costa Rica comfortably beat the USA 3-0 at the weekend and they just look a better team than Guatemala. The Guats still can qualify for the World Cup with a victory tonight and there is a chance Costa Rica will be friendly to their central American allies and let them win. However, I think it is not that likely and they look over-priced with a 3/4 goal start. In a neutral venue with both sides trying, the Costa Ricans would be head and shoulders better than the Guatemalans. Costa Rica are worth a one point bet +3/4 at 2.08.

I won't be betting on any of the other games tonight.