UEFA Cup 13 & 14 Dec

Wednesday’s games

I am always wary of betting on sides that have already qualified for the next round and that rules out plenty of the games tonight. Blackburn, Nancy, Espanyol, Panathanaikos and Waregem are all definitely through while Feyernoord and Krakow have nothing to play for. However those clubs that have qualified would still rather finish top of their group than second so they avoid the Champions League teams in the next round. But is that enough to make them try hard tonight – who knows? In other words, it’s a punting minefield.

The only game that looks worth a bet tonight is the Palermo vs Celta Vigo game. The bookies seem to have priced this up on the basis of Palermo’s excellent 3-0 win over Livorno in Serie A this weekend. If they played that well a home win would seem certain but the Sicilians don’t seem too bothered about the UEFA Cup this season and my reading of the Italian sports pages suggests they will be playing a much weakened squad tonight as they are far more concerned about their trip to AS Roma this weekend than qualifying for the next round. Palermo’s non trying status can be seen in how they played against Fenerbahce and although three points would take them through, they look opposable tonight. Celta Vigo would be fine with a draw but bring a decent squad with them and are capable of even winning this. They rested several of their best players at the weekend when they drew 1-1 with Valencia and that suggests to me that they are taking this game seriously. With the handicap start they look like a value bet and I recommend a two point wager on Celta Vigo (+ ½ ) at 1.90.

[Celta Vigo drew 1-1]

Thursday’s games

The bookies are generally pretty keen on the home sides tonight and there are some pretty large handicaps to be covered by sides that will not necessarily care too much whether they win or not. I think this is a night for extreme caution in our betting.

The only bet that makes any appeal is to take Parma at home with a handicap start against Osasuna. In many ways this bet is counter-intuitive because Parma have guaranteed their position at the top of the group and have said they will rest many of their players. But the Italians have said they would only play second string players in all three of their UEFA Cup matches so far and when they have done so they have won every game. It seems that their junior players are so keen to impress that they will pull out all the stops even when a result does not matter. Osasuna have won three in a row in La Liga and should be respected but they only need a draw tonight and I just think the bookies have gone a bit over the top in making the home side such outsiders. I can see the idea but the bookies have, in my opinion, over-reacted and should be punished for their generosity. Have a one point bet on Parma (+ ¼) at 1.99.
[Parma lost 3-0]