UEFA 29 & 30 Nov

In previous UEFA Cup weeks I have remarked about how hard it is for bettors to assess this competition at the group stages because so many managers don’t seem to care about the competition and put out weakened sides. Normally that would be good news for bettors but it seems that a lot of these weakened sides then go on to win! So I have kept stakes to a minimum until we reach the knockout rounds of this Cup.

Wednesday’s games

Both Auxerre and Partizan Belgrade must win their game tonight to go through to the next round as they both only have one point so far. It may be that neither side care that much but I have to oppose Partizan in this contest because they seem to be on worse form than Auxerre and because they are missing Odita (their top scorer), Nadj and Kralj for this game. Without those three key players they are going to be even weaker than they were when losing to Maccabi Haifa last week. Auxerre lost 1-0 to Lyon last weekend which is not terrible form and their 2-2 draw to Rangers reads much better in the light of the Scottish club’s recent run of good form. They look the better side and a small bet is called for. Have a one point bet on Auxerre (level) at 1.92.

[Auxerre won 4-1]

Livorno should on known form beat Maccabi Haifa but the Italians seem to be poor in the UEFA Cup and may not be trying 100%. Maccabi however seem to relish the European competition so this is a game to avoid betting on.

Grasshoppers look worth opposing at home as they have lost both their games in the group stages by a wide margin (5-2 and 4-1) and are in poor form in the Swiss league. They lost to bottom of the table Aarau at the weekend and have lost five of their last six domestic games. The Swiss league is weak at the best of times and that is appalling form which will soon see Balakov sacked, I suspect. Seville are playing extremely well in La Liga and the only concern is that the reigning UEFA Cup champions don’t really care about this competition. I think that is unlikely given the way they have approached it so far and I expect Adriano, Castedo and Sales to play tonight. They look simply too strong and should be taken to secure an away win. Have a two point bet on Seville (- ½) at 1.80

[Seville won 4-0]

No other matches stand out as being worth a wager tonight.

Thursday’s games

The hardest game to assess tonight is the Frankfurt vs Newcastle contest. Newcastle have such serious injury and suspension problems that they are taking five players from their youth academy out to Germany tonight and you can expect at least three of them to start. That would normally be an automatic reason to oppose Glenn Roeder’s side but there are a couple of reasons to think again about that idea. First, Newcastle seem to be performing way above their normal form level in the UEFA Cup this season and second, it is hard to know how much Frankfurt will be trying in this game. A third reason is that Newcastle do not have a Premiership match this weekend so they will not be resting the side in order to keep them in peak form for an upcoming fixture. Fourth is that Newcastle have got some confidence now and are playing better than ever, as we saw in their 1-0 win over Portsmouth last weekend. There are reasons to oppose Frankfurt too. The German side are 11th in the Bundesliga and have won only five of the 20 games they have played this season, which makes them appalling value to cover the ¾ goal handicap they are handed tonight. Their form this season has been uninspiring and they look a considerably weaker side this season than the one that qualified for this competition last year. A win here would give them a chance of going through to the next round but it may be that they accept that it is not likely to happen and focus on their domestic league. At the prices offered by the bookmakers I have to think they have over-reacted to Newcastle’s injuries and a small bet on the visitors is the value option. Have a one point bet on Newcastle (+ ¾) at 1.98

[Frankfurt and Newcastle drew 0-0]

Espanyol look to have been under-rated by the bookies tonight for their trip to Ajax. The Spanish side top their group with six points and look to be taking this competition seriously. They are not playing that well in La Liga but their UEFA Cup results so far this season have been excellent – especially their 6-0 win over Zulte Waregem – and they face an Ajax side that could only draw 0-0 with Sparta Prague last time out. Ajax are third in their league and playing okay but it is a relatively weak division and I think the bookies may have slightly over-rated the home side. Try a one point bet on Espanyol (+ ½) at 2.22

[Espanyol won 2-0]

Austria Vienna vs Sparta Prague is a game where both sides probably don’t care about the result so is best avoided. If you have to have a bet you should probably go for the home side as they are more likely to be trying.

The biggest betting move of the night has been on Rapid Bucharest. It looks like Panathanaikos will either go for a draw (they only need one point) or a weakened side so it’s worth keeping an eye on this match if you are thinking of having a bet.

No other game attracts my interest from a betting point of view.