UEFA Cup 2 Nov

Bookies are not happy about the way the UEFA Cup is going this round because some of the clubs seem not to care about winning it. Why they have bothered to battle to get this far and then decide to field second strength sides, I cannot really answer. However several coaches have said they will be resting some of their top players and those sides – often the big name ones – should be avoided.

The top two to avoid tonight are Newcastle and Livorno.

Newcastle manager Glenn Roeder has left half of his first team behind in Newcastle for their trip to Palermo and given his side were probably going to lose to the Sicilians even if they fielded a full strength side, the chances of the Toon picking up a result tonight seems very slim indeed. Duff, Carr, Babayaro, Parker, Martins, Ameobi and Givens are all missing because of injury or because they are being rested and it looks likely they will put highly inexperienced keeper Tim Krul in goal. Luque is likely to be their lone striker and all in all Newcastle look poor. They also have a game against Portsmouth on Saturday evening (which they could have moved to Sunday but chose not to because of the extra television revenues) so if they go behind I can’t see them expending huge energy chasing the game.

So is this maximum bet material on their opponents Palermo? Not quite because the Italians have also decided to rest some of their top players too. However they have much more strength in depth and will only rest a couple of players rather than most of their best squad members. Add in home advantage and the odds on offer of 1.67 about Palermo winning the match look generous. Have a five point bet on Palermo (- ½) at 1.67.

[Newcastle won 1-0]

Livorno have also announced they have no intention of playing anywhere near a full strength squad. Following their 3-2 loss to Rangers in the first of the group games I assume they have decided they have little chance of going forward to the next round and therefore should simply treat the next few games as irrelevant. They lie seventh in Serie A and have made it clear that their domestic success is their priority. I am sure Partizan Belgrade fans will not mind at all and the odds on offer about the Serbians are very generous. Even though they are only third in their domestic league they look strong enough to win this. It is just a shame they did not play in week one of the UEFA Cup group stage as that would have given me more of a chance to assess their strengths and weaknesses. That said, I am happy to risk my money on them and the advice is to have a three point bet on Partizan (- ¼) at 1.76.

[Partizan drew 1-1 after Livorno scored in the 88th minute]

One of my themes of this year’s UEFA Cup is how much the bookies have under-estimated the Israeli sides. Their domestic league has improved in quality by a huge degree in the last three years and their sides are certainly capable to delivering in European competition. They are also very motivated to do well, unlike some of their opponents. Hapoel Tel Aviv and Maccabi Haifa represent them tonight and Tel Aviv look the better value, in their match against Rapid Bucharest. I am going to recommend a two point bet on Tel Aviv (level) at 2.01 and a one point double on Tel Aviv (level) at 2.01 and Maccabi Haifa (+ ¾) at 1.97.

[Tel Aviv drew 2-2; Maccabi lost 2-0]

Given the strength of the above bets, it seems foolish to have any more wagers.