Serie A 28 & 29 April

Saturday’s games

AC will travel to Torino with their mind on the second leg of the Champions League against Manchester United. Although AC will be resting many of their players I think they are strong enough to overcome a Torino side that has forgotten how to win, they drew 0-0 last week and lost three games on the trot before that. Another loss would take them treacherously close to the drop zone. The price quoted seems very high to me and seems like cracking value. Have a two point bet on AC (-1/2) at 2.61.

[AC won 1-0]

The other match on Staurday sees Chievo travel to Florence where they will take on Fiorentina at the Stadio Artemio Franchi. Just one point above the drop zone, the Flying Donkeys have been struggling to stay up all season, they will need a result to maintain their position and will be going all out to get one. Fiorentina are sitting just below a UEFA Cup spot and with Palermo in terrible form, three points might well take them up a place. Fiorentina have done well to overcome their points deduction but they have been inconsistent all season, losing recently to Parma. With a goal handicap I think Chievo are worth a small wager, have a one point bet on Chievo (+1) at 1.93.

[Chievo lost 1-0]

Sunday’s games

In the relegation battle of the weekend, Ascoli host Reggina in a must win game for both sides. Reggina are in good form and I think they will win this match, but the handicaps are giving no value at all and I think this match is best left alone.

Messina have dropped down the table like a lead weight down the table, having lost their last five games they are in desperate need of a win to give them a chance of staying up. Conversely, Atalanta will be looking for a win as they attempt to push for a UEFA Cup spot. The visitors are in good form, winning three of their last five games, including a win over Roma. A two point wager on Atalanta (-½) at 1.90 is a value bet.

[Atalanta drew 0-0]

I am keen to oppose Palermo as they have not won in 11 games, however Livorno’s star striker Lucarelli is suspended and will be greatly missed. I am not sure if Livorno have what it takes to win without him and so this match is a no bet for me.

Unbeaten in four games, Parma have won three times to claw their way out of the drop zone and are looking like a different side. They will be looking for another three points as they host struggling Cagliari. The visitors have lost their last two games and are only three points clear of the drop. I recommend a one point bet on Parma (-½) at 1.95.

[Parma won 2-1]

None of the other games represent great value for me.