The 2006 John Smith's Grand National

Overview: Aintree is a specialist course and not every horse can handle its unique fences. Since very few horses normally race over four and a half miles, many of the 40 runners will simply not be suited by such a long trip. This is particularly true if the weather gets nasty and the main factor in heavy ground is to find a horse that has almost unlimited stamina and can jump the fences. It’s well worth checking what the going is likely to be before parting with your hard-earned cash.

Clan Royal BetUK odds: 11/2

One of the two classiest horses in the field (along with Hedgehunter) but big questions about how much he really likes Aintree and whether he truly stays the trip. Tends to be a bit too keen and therefore prone to falls but has shown signs of settling better in recent races. Obvious chance but odds a bit short considering form he has shown to date.

Hedgehunter BetUK odds: 11/2

Last year’s winner but he will have to be an exceptional horse to do the double. Was trained specifically for the National last year but has had two hard Group 1 races this year, including an impressive second in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. The handicapper has given him a lot of weight and if the ground is riding even a little softer than it is at the moment I would not give him a chance. On good ground he may win but the odds are not generous, given how difficult it has proven over the years to win this race more than once.

Numbersixvalverde BetUK odds: 10/1

Ireland’s leading hope and winner of the Irish Grand National. With the Irish having such a good Cheltenhamthere will be plenty of money for this horse but he doesn’t look like an Aintree horse to me. He makes too many mistakes with his jumping and unless he improves a lot on recent performances he may simply not be classy enough. A possible winner and if I did bet him I would bet ‘win only’ as he strikes me as the sort to either win it or do nothing.

Innox BetUK odds: 12/1

Solid claims on his best form but questions about whether he has enough speed and stamina to last out the full trip. Previous experience in the race suggests he may well run out of petrol half a mile from home. Tony McCoy has chosen to ride Clan Royal rather than Innox, which is a negative indicator, while French-bred horses have a shocking record round the National fences. Have to respect his chances and solid place claims.

Jack High BetUK odds: 14/1

Won the Betfred Gold Cup last season and only just failed to win the Irish National, so had the top class form to win the National. However his prep race at Down Royal was not encouraging – he only won because his main rival fell – and he will need to run a lot better to win this year.

Sir Rembrandt BetUK odds: 16/1

Well handicapped and sure to stay but the way he jumped in the CheltenhamGold Cup suggests he may well be in danger of falling at Aintree. If he gets round he has solid place claims but I would rather bet him straight for a place than take the win part of the bet.

Garvivonian BetUK odds: 16/1

A lot of shrewd experts’ choice as the ‘value’ bet in the race. Wants soft ground and likes Aintree, as he showed when winning the Becher Chase. Solid jumper but only really likely to win if there is plenty of rain. Strong place claims on good to soft.

Cornish Rebel BetUK odds: 18/1

Best Mate’s brother so will be a housewife’s favourite but a dodgy jumper and it will be a minor miracle if he gets round. Also being asked to carry a lot of weight. Hard to fancy and too short a price to reflect all the risks.

Royal Auclair BetUK odds: 20/1

Second in last year’s race but has looked a different (much worse!) horse this season. Odds reflect his previous performance rather than recent form and not a good value bet.

Ross Comm BetUK odds: 20/1

Needs soft ground to show his best form but has the right mixture of stamina and speed to do well in the National. Riding style of his jockey, Dominic Elsworth, is suited to the race and he could be the class horse at the bottom of the handicap.

Joes Edge BetUK odds: 20/1

Has the right profile of a National winner and has been trained with this race in mind. Won the Scottish Grand National last year and his sire, Supreme Leader, has had two second places from three runners in the last 10 years. Would prefer genuinely good ground but has won on soft in the past. A live contender.

Lord Of Illusion BetUK odds: 25/1

Ran a shocking race in the Cheltenham Gold Cup but has been trained with this race in mind all year and has been the subject of some decent support from shrewd equine judges. Really needs good ground and every drop of rain between now and Saturday will reduce his chances.

Silver Birch BetUK odds: 25/1

No form this season at all. Has been pulled up in last two races and while he was touted early on in the season as a National horse, it is hard to see how he can win this unless there is some miracle recovery. A risky investment.

Juveigneur BetUK odds: 25/1

Needs good ground to run his best race and it looks likely that he will not get it. Closely matched to Jack High on Betfred Gold Cup form but double the odds. Owner won the race last year with Hedgehunter, so if you like a coincidence bet, this could be the one for you.

Direct Access BetUK odds: 25/1

Can run well at a big price and had the right pedigree for National success. However he fell at the first fence in the Becher Chase at Aintree and it may be that he just doesn’t like the

Haut De Gamme BetUK odds: 33/1

French bred chaser who has decent Aintree form (second in the Topham Chase last year and fifth in the Becher Chase this season) and is likely to stay the trip, according to his trainer Ferdy Murphy. Some concerns about jockey Keith Mercer and whether the horse has the class to win this race. Will have to improve a lot to win it.

It Takes Time BetUK odds: 33/1

Fourth last year and has great Aintree experience and seems to love the course. The big problem is that he’s much better over about a mile shorter and there always seem to be a few horse staying on better at the finish.

Eurotrek BetUK odds: 33/1

Another horse that needs soft ground and the more rain there is, the better his chances will be. Main worry is that he has very little experience as he has only ever run in six chases and the National tends to be won by horses with more races under their belt. A good value outsider, particularly if the ground becomes heavy.

Sir Oj BetUK odds: 33/1

Well fancied outsider who looks a good type for this race. Jockey Paul Carberry is hugely enthusiastic and thinks he should be half the odds and should stay the trip. An interesting outsider.

Nil Desperandum BetUK odds: 33/1

Plenty of other horses in the race with better form and difficult to see the horse finishing better than his sixth place finish last season when he was in better form.

Ebony Light BetUK odds: 33/1

No-one knows how to get a horse right for the National better than Ebony Light’s trainer Ginger McCain and this is the pick of his three entries. Needs the ground to be very soft and if it is not you’d be better off picking another outsider.

Colnel Rayburn BetUK odds: 33/1

Needs soft ground and the wetter it, the better his chances. Likes Aintree’s fences and trained with this race in mind but not one that overly excites me.

Le Duc BetUK odds: 40/1

Loves it round Aintree but all his best form is over much shorter distances and doesn’t stand out as a likely winner to me.

Heros Collonges BetUK odds: 40/1

Eighth last year on unsuitably fast ground and if the ground is heavy Heros Collonges has an excellent chance. If it is not, you’d be better off investing your cash elsewhere as this horse only thrives in a real muddy slog.

Therealbandit BetUK odds: 40/1

Much better over shorter distances and others have a much better chance.

Amberleigh House BetUK odds: 50/1

Won the National in 2004 but has not been in anywhere near the same form since. A repeat win would be the greatest comeback since Lazarus.

Forest Gunner BetUK odds: 50/1

A sentimental choice and has a female jockey again this time (Nina Carberry) but the blunt truth is that Forest Gunner seems a shadow of the horse who finished fifth last year. Hard to fancy.

Lord Atterbury BetUK odds: 50/1

Came third in 2004 but has not run such a good race since and is inclined to jump poorly. Best swerved.

Ollie Magern BetUK odds: 50/1

Has always been talked about as a class horse but is a monumental under-achiever and has no recent form that could give you any encouragement.

Inca Trail BetUK odds: 50/1

Another Ginger McCain runner and likely to impress during the first circuit but may not find enough in reserve to feature second time round or at the finish. Easily passed over.

Ballycassidy BetUK odds: 66/1

Not impossible to see this one winning but will need to run a lot better than ever before in his life and fell at the second last year. Others make more appeal.

First Gold BetUK odds: 66/1

Top class horse in his time but that was about three years ago and he looks a bit past it. Will probably trot round in his own time.

Just In Debt BetUK odds: 66/1

Third in the Becher Chase to Garvivonnian and only beaten a length but big stamina doubts. An interesting big priced outsider.

Puntal BetUK odds: 66/1

Hasn’t run for more than two years and is a moody character who may not be suited to Aintree, having fallen here on his last start over these fences.

Native Upmanship BetUK odds: 100/1

Too old and not really good enough on any recent form.

Ground Ball BetUK odds: 100/1

Unlikely to stay the trip and hasn’t put up any performances to catch the eye this season.

Rince Ri BetUK odds: 100/1

Too old, too slow and out of form.

Whispered Secret BetUK odds: 100/1

A very unlikely winner indeed.

Iznogoud BetUK odds: 100/1

Accurately named. 12th last year and unlikely to be any closer this time around.