FA Cup 7 to 9 Jan

Friday's game

A lot of rubbish is written about the magic of the FA Cup but the fact is that in eight of the last nine seasons it has been won by one of Chelsea, Manchester United and Arsenal. Bettors have to realise that it is increasingly hard for the small clubs to do well in this competition and it is a brave man who goes for any other club in the outright betting. If I had to have an outright bet at this stage, I would take Tottenham at 21.00 with Bet 365 and Stan James. Martin Jol's side are playing very well at the moment and fit the profile of a side that can aim for a good cup run without worrying about a top three finish or relegation.

In tonight's game between Burnley and Liverpool it is very hard indeed to make a case for supporting the home club. With Robbie Blake leaving for Birmingham, Burnley have lost their greatest asset and it is hard to see Burnley repeating their Carling Cup victory over Villa (3-1) earlier in the season. Benitez's side have some serious injury problems but they have played well in recent games and shouldn't have too many problems tonight. However, the one goal handicap away from home is quite high and I think it is better to save money for tomorrow's games. No bet is the call on margin.

Saturday's matches

It would be good to suggest that the bookies had been totally confused by this weekend's FA Cup matches and that the problems of handicapping between different divisions had led to large difference of opinions between the bookies. Unfortunately that is not the case and there is a large amount of agreement about the odds on the matches, which doesn't leave us with a huge amount to bet on.

I expect Premiership sides to generally not have too many problems this weekend. The gulg in finances between EPL clubs and the lower divisions is growing ever larger and it is hard to see most of the minnows pitted against the EPL sides getting through. That said, some of the clubs at the very bottom of the EPL may take the view that the FA Cup is a very minor consideration against the possibility of being relegated and that they would be happy to go out in the third round, rather than be beaten at a later stage and drop a divison. For that reason you may not want to bet on them.

Of those EPL clubs who have large handicaps to cover, the most attractive look to be Tottenham (1 3/4 goals against Brighton), Manchester United (2 1/2 against lowly Exeter) and Everton (3/4 against Plymouth). If you like betting big favourites - which I do not - then I think these are the best bets on offer.

For my own bets though, I will be sticking to some lower division clubs for my action. Colchester are worth supporting with a one goal start against Hull. I was surprised to see that Colchester, who look like a Cup side to me this year, were such big underdogs against a Hull side that are perenially over-hyped. The bookies look to have over-reacted to both sides' recent form and I think the Us are worth a one point bet (+1) at 1.84.

QPR are another side that look like a good Cup side - they will play an aggressive, attacking game and will score goals - and they only have to cover a 1/2 goal handicap against a terrible Nottingham Forest side that has lost the plot this season. That simply looks too low a handicap to me and QPR are worth a one point bet at 2.04 (-1/2).

Sunday's games

I'm afraid that with two big favourites today, there is not much value to be had in betting on these games. With Manchester United drawing at home to Exeter, it may be that Arsenal play a slightly stronger squad than planned against Stoke but they will still be missing Henry and some other important players. A game best left alone. Newcastle should easily account for Yeading but the bookies are not giving much away with their handicap. No bet is the safest option.


Check back for more picks on Saturday and Sunday's games.