FA Cup 14 & 15 April

Manchester United vs Watford

I find it impossible to know what to bet in this game. In a FA Cup semi final you would expect the underdog to play a massive game and this is the most important game all season for Watford. But they meet a United side that on Tuesday beat AS Roma, one of the best sides in Italy, 7-1. United are in such great form at the moment and scoring so many goals that the bookies simply do not know how to price up the games. Is 1 1/2 goal a high enough handicap? I don't really know. In those circumstances the safest thing is simply not to have a bet. So I won't.

Blackburn vs Chelsea

The bookies think it is almost certain that we have a Manchester United vs Chelsea final and the betting reflects that. However I think that Chelsea may have something of a struggle today and I think Blackburn are a decent bet on the handicap. The Blues are a good side but they tend not to win in the same way as United, prefering to edge past their opponents by a single goal. That makes them the enemy of handicap bettors usually. The bad news for Blackburn Rovers fans is that they have lost to Chelsea three times this season without scoring a single goal - 3-0 at Stamford Bridge and twice 2-0 at home. However Mark Hughes will have marshalled his side well for a crucial game that is of far greater importance to his side than it is for Chelsea. With a neutral venue and a one goal start, Blackburn are worth a one point bet at 1.82.

[Chelsea drew 1-1 after 90 mins and went on to win 2-1 in extra time]