FA Cup 10 & 11 March

When handicapping FA Cup games you have to take into account that the one off nature of the contest means that you cannot directly apply Premiership form into the game. Generally speaking the outsider will perform better than expected and the handicap line should be adjusted about twenty points (eg from 2.00 to 1.80) in favour of the outsider than it would be in a normal Premiership match.

Saturday’s game

Middlesborough have a surprisingly good record home against Manchester
United, having won three of their last six visits. The two sides have met once this season when United won 2-1 at Boro, so we have a direct line of form to go on for this contest from December 2. Obviously it has to be adjusted slightly. United obviously come into this game on the back of a 1-0 win over Lille and they are in great form, so I am loathe to oppose them. The bookies are giving little away in their line and, if anything, I would slightly lean towards the Premiership leaders if I was forced to have a bet but I am not so it’s a no bet contest.

Sundays’s games

Chelsea have a really strong record at Stamford Bridge against Spurs, having not been beaten in the last 18 home games. Spurs have already beaten Chelsea on their only meeting this season, winning 2-1 at White Hart Lane on November 5 but I have a feeling that this will not be their lucky day. There is something about this Blues side which suggests to me that they can and do raise their game for the really important matches and that this is one of them. Spurs showed both their good and bad side in their 3-2 win over Braga on Thursday night – they scored three but also conceded two sloppy goals. They have had 48 hours less than Chelsea to recover from their European game and that also will be a factor. However the handicap line is exactly what I made it myself and there is no real reason to have a bet. If I had to have a wager I would be on the under 2.5 goals market at 1.93.

I think the bookies have got the line a little off in the Blackburn vs Manchester City contest. Rovers are in great form at the moment and on the current form I made them a strong favourite over City, who are nearly the relegation zone and may well be more focused on Premiership survival than winning this match. The relative importance of the two competitions in financial terms is huge and you can see why Manchester City might be happy to exit at the quarter finals and keep themselves focused on staying up. My main concern is how Blackburn recover from their UEFA Cup action on Thursday night but on all known form I would say the bookies are being a little generous. Have a one point bet on Blackburn (-1/2) at 1.83.

[Blackburn won 2-0]

The Plymouth vs Watford game makes little appeal. It all depends on whether Watford have accepted they will be relegated and that they should focus on the FA Cup or whether they still think they have a chance of getting out of trouble and will just see what happens with a makeshift team. Obviously this is a huge game for Plymouth and they will be far more ‘up’ for it than their visitors. The handicap line looks about right though (off level) and I can’t see any value in having a bet unless we hear that Watford are fielding a weakened side.