FA Cup 17 & 18 Feb

I am travelling this week so please accept my apologies for a slightly shorter preview than normal.

Regular Bet Asia readers will know that I am not a huge fan of FA Cup betting, especially in a weekend when four of the teams face Champions League fixtures in the following week and may have more of a focus on results in the main European competition than in the domestic Cup.

I also have a strong feeling that there is not much value in FA Cup betting as the Premiership sides tend to be considerably better than their lower league opponents and usually win, but often they are happy to win by only one goal, which makes handicap betting very tricky.

I was tempted to simply put up a bet of one point on each of Manchester United, Arsenal and Chelsea’s opponents this weekend, but on reflection I have refined that down to simply opposing Chelsea and Arsenal.

Arsenal simply have to be opposed again because they are a team that is short of top players, they will be tired after the midweek game against Bolton, they are more focussed on the Champions League and they are rated a goal superior to a Blackburn side that is fairly decent. It looks like the wrong handicap line to me and Blackburn Rovers (+1) at 2.10 are well worth a two point bet.

[Arsenal and Blackburn drew 1-1]

Chelsea have to be opposed because they don’t win games by a huge margin and Jose Mourinho knows that the Champions League is far more important to his survival as Chelsea manager than the FA Cup. He can’t afford to lose in midweek and a narrow win against Norwich would be just fine by him. As for Norwich, this is their Cup final and they will approach it with full concentration. They have not been an impressive side this season – nowhere near what they were like in the Premiership – but we are given a good chance with them getting such a big handicap. Have a one point bet on Norwich (+1 ¾) at 2.11,

[Chelsea won 4-0]

Sunday’s two games are really no bet contests but on my own handicap assessments I made Fulham marginal value off a level handicap as Spurs’ away record is awful at the moment and they seem to be low on confidence following a run which leaves them in mid table obscurity with little to play for this season.