FA Cup 13 & 14 Feb
Joe Saumarez Smith's expert picks for FA Cup games on 13th and 14th February 2007.
Tuesday's games
With two FA Cup games to bet on it can be tempting to just have a wager for the sake of it but tonight's games really offer little appeal to anyone but the desperate punter.
Boro are in good form in the Premiership for once but they don't seem to have the strength needed for a good Cup run and I am wary of taking them to cover a 1 1/4 goal handicap against a spirited Bristol City side. In these sort of games you need to usually take the away side with a big handicap against a Premiership side in a poor run of form but with Boro in good shape at the moment this match screams out as a no bet contest.
Norwich vs Blackpool is the sort of contest that all sensible bettors leave alone. If you had to have a wager then the draw could be the value option but no bet is the sensible call.
Wednesday's game
Occassionally I really do not get a Asian handicap line and the Bolton vs Arsenal game is one in which I think the bookies have it wrong. The Trotters should probably have won the first fixture and Arsenal rescued themselves from a game they looked doomed to lose. Bolton have kept up their good form since then and have every incentive to win the FA Cup. This is probably the most important game of the season so far for them. By contrast, Arsenal are in relatively poor form, have a massive number of injuries and may not even care that much about winning this competition, especially with the Champions League starting again next week. Wenger is being forced to rest his key players and I suspect if Arsenal go one behind early on (as they so often do) he may not bother too hard to chase this game. The 1/4 goal handicap start Bolton get at home is almost an insult to them and the bookies are, in my opinion, being far too generous.
Have a three point bet on Bolton (+1/4) at 1.81
[Bolton lost 3-1 after extra time]