FA Cup 27 & 28 Jan

I am not a big fan on betting on the FA Cup and generally will only have a wager on games where I think the bookies have got the betting lines very wrong. Generally the mistake bookies make is to over-estimate teams in higher divisions who are out of form who are playing against opponents from a lower division who are in good form. As a general rule the bookies tend to keep the Premiership teams at short prices (and therefore big handicaps) because they know that is the way the bettors’ action will go, so if you are having a bet don’t get too carried away with the big name teams.

Saturday’s games

The most obvious example of this in a game today is the match between Blackpool and Norwich. The bookies price this off a level handicap despite the fact that the Canaries are the second worst team in the Championship on eight match form while the home side are the second best side in League One over the last eight games. When a form side like Blackpool meets a team that is badly out of form like Norwich then a bet is always worthwhile, especially as Norwich may be more concerned about avoiding relegation than putting together a Cup run. My only concern is that Norwich have a good record when travelling to Blackpool, having lost once in their last seven trips. But at the prices I can forgive that and a two point bet on Blackpool (level) at 1.79 looks a fair wager.

[Norwich and Blackpool drew 1-1]

No other games stand out as a clear wager although I did consider picks of the following teams on the Asian handicap: Barnet, Bristol City, Preston and Southend. Stoke would have been the sixth selection, had I been forced to choose that many teams but fortunately I can be selective and just have one bet today.

Sunday’s games

West Brom are in fantastic form in the Championship at the moment and have put together a string of great results. They are playing with a ton of confidence at the moment against opponents who have hit a rough patch of form. On all known form WBA are the better side at the moment and they look like a value bet off a level handicap for their visit to Wolves. Place a one point bet on West Brom (level) at 1.93.

[West Brom won 3-0]

Bolton have already placed Arsenal once this season and won 2-1 and I think they will fancy their chances of getting a result at the Emirates today. I was staggered to see that the bookies have made this a one goal handicap match because the visitors are in fifth place in the Premiership, one place behind Arsenal, and they have played solid football all season. While Arsenal have not yet lost at the Emirates, they have drawn plenty of times, and as we saw last weekend against Manchester United they needed a good deal of luck not to have their first loss there. Arsenal have had two tough games in the last seven days and there is a big danger of a let down here. Add in the numerous injuries Arsenal have picked up in recent days, especially the loss of van Persie, and the handicap looks absurd. It is based on the bookies getting carried away with the United and Carling Cup semi final at Spurs results and looks wrong to me. Have a four point bet on Bolton (+1) at 1.87.

[Arsenal and Bolton drew 1-1]