FA Cup 16 & 17 Jan

FA Cup replays often seem to see the big name teams who failed to win first time around come out and destroy their more lowly opponents. The reason tends to be that the managers (or at least their tactical advisers) have had time to work out the weak points of their opponents and also because the players from the smaller clubs tend to have tried their hearts out in the first game and mentally prepared themselves for not being quite good enough to get through to the next round. As a rule I want to be on the bigger clubs at this stage, although of course I am prepared to make an exception when the bigger clubs have serious injury problems or have decided that it is not worth fielding a full strength side.

Tuesday’s games

In the last set of games I took Bristol City to beat Coventry at Ashton Gate and the game ended 3-3 with City probably the better of the two sides. I see no reason why City should not be a great bet at the Ricoh Arena tonight. Coventry are in disarray and manager Micky Adams simply seems a bit lost. The Sky Blues were dire at the weekend in their 4-2 loss to Palace – they conceded four in the first half – and I can’t see there being much home advantage tonight as the crowd are likely to spend half the game calling for the manager and board to be sacked. Bristol City will have been a bit gutted to only get a draw after leading 3-1 but I think they will come into this game with some confidence and the handicap line looks way too high for me. Have a two point bet on Bristol City (+ ½) at 1.78

[Bristol City won 2-0]

Sheffield Wednesday managed a 1-1 draw at home to Manchester City just over a week ago and they are possibly a touch of value with a goal start at Eastlands. The Owls have gone from being relegation candidates at the start of the season to a decent side under Brian Laws and the handicap does seem generous. However with City unbeaten in their last five I am not going to risk my own cash on this and will just watch this contest

In the other games I expect Middlesborough and Ipswich to win easily but the handicaps are hardly giving much away while QPR are probably a touch of value against a Luton side that has almost forgotten how to win (two victories in the last 17 games). Southend are interesting against Barnsley as the visitors are in great form but the value bet is the 3.20 on the fixed odds rather than the ¼ goal handicap.

Wednesday’s games

It is hard to have a bet tonight and I am happier to keep my winnings from last night to reinvest on the weekend games.

Newcastle’s injury ravaged team is in top form at the moment but it’s hard to get too excited about tonight’s game. I have bet the Magpies several times in recent weeks with a handicap start but now they have hit good form the bookies are not giving much away, especially as we do not know how much they will care about progressing in the FA Cup. In theory it is their best chance of qualifying for Europe next season but they did not look that impressive in the first match against Birmingham where they could not hold onto a lead despite the fact that their hosts were down to 10 men for most of the second half. With a ¾ goal handicap the bookies look to have it about right and given the 2-2 draw last time around the only way I would bet this is on the visitors. But no bet is the safest option.

Spurs should easily beat Cardiff, who have failed to score in their last four games. You could have a bet on Cardiff not to score (1.91 with Paddy Power) if you are really desperate for a wager but with the handicap so high there is not much value on Martin Jol’s side. Fulham should also win but they are one goal favourites and that’s enough to put me off having a bet.