FA Cup 6 & 7 Jan

I am never a great fan of betting on the FA Cup as it can be tricky to know the motivations of teams and whether they really care about winning their games. This may seem a bit odd in the self-proclaimed ‘best knockout competition in the world’ (as I saw it claimed earlier this week) but it’s true that for many teams a good run in the FA Cup would be a distraction from the main focus of getting promoted (or avoiding relegation) and that they would be happy to go out at this stage.

Last season every single Premiership club made it through the third round – much to the disgust of the bookies – and the Tote make it 1.05 (1/20) that two Premiership sides meet in the final. A few years back you could expect quite a decent number of shocks at this stage but the gap between the Premiership and the rest means that the odds on the top teams have got shorter and the handicaps bigger.

The formula I tend to look for in successful FA Cup betting is to oppose teams who are in terrible form playing against a side in a lower division that is in great form. The bookies tend to get carried away with the side in the higher division and think that the gulf in class is greater than it really is. The value of confidence in a team is huge and if you can find a side that really believes it can win against a side that has forgotten how to win then you can have a good bet. I tend to try and find teams outside the Premiership that fit this pattern.

Saturday’s games

Coventry fit the profile of a side in awful form. They are in the bottom half of the Championship but their early season form means they are still a little off the relegation zone, which means the bookies do not see them as that vulnerable on their initial reading. However if you look at the form for the last eight matches in the division then you see Coventry are the second worst side in the league, just ahead of Leeds. They have managed just six out of a possible 24 points and have scored six goals in eight games while conceding 14. Not good form. They meet a Bristol City side at Ashton Gate who are playing well, are in fifth place in league one and are fifth in the table also on eight match form. This is precisely the sort of situation where the bookies find it difficult to get a handle on the market and I think City are great value off a level handicap. Have a two point bet on Bristol City (level) at 1.78.

[Bristol City drew 3-3]

I can’t resist having a bet on high flying Colchester to cover a ½ goal handicap away at Barnet. The Super Us really are in amazing form this season and they are playing with a huge amount of confidence in a Championship where everyone expected them to be relegated. They are a well organised side and simply look superior to Barnet, who are in mid-table in League 2 and playing quite dull football this season. In normal circumstances I would expect this to be at least a ¾ goal game and possibly even a one goal game but because Colchester are so unfashionable I think the bookies have marked the handicap down. The only downside is the absence of Colchester captain Karl Duguid but I can live with that and United are worth a one point bet (-½) at 1.83.

[Match was abandoned due to bad weather conditions]

I am happy to leave the other games on Saturday alone and save my money for better opportunities.

In the other games it is worth knowing the following:

• Swansea have terrible injury problems for their trip to Sheffield United. Five key players including their captain Darren Pratley are out injured and their top scorer, Lee Trundle, is suspended.
• Torquay barely have enough players to make up a team and only have 13 players in total, so they may run out of substitutes against Southampton! Jamie Ward, Torquay’s top scorer, is suspended
• Sunderland have serious injuries problems for their trip to Preston. Preston have a great home record against the Mackems, having lost just once in their last nine home fixtures
• Newcastle have lost only two of their last nine games at Birmingham
• Blackburn have a strong record at Goodison Park and have only lost twice in their last six visits
• Fulham have lost once in the last five trips to Leicester
• Manchester United have not lost at Old Trafford to Aston Villa in the last 21 games
• QPR have only lost once in the last 13 games at home against Luton
• Reading have not lost a single home game in the last 11 against Burnley
• Manchester City have not lost at home to Sheffield Wednesday in the last five meetings
• Oldham have lost once in the last seven trips to Wolves and nearly made my shortlist as pick because they have excellent recent form (top of league one in eight match form) but the ½ goal handicap was not quite enough to force a bet.

Sunday’s games

After yesterday's results saw two Premiership sides crash out of the FA Cup there may be bettors willing to bet on a few upsets today but none of the games looks that appealing from a betting point of view. The Manchester United vs Aston Villa has a pretty high handicap considering Villa held Chelsea to a draw recently but United are scoring so many goals at the moment that I am loathe to oppose them on the handicap at the moment.

Everton should beat Blackburn if they play up to their best form but they don't always do that and the handicap is high enough to put me off.

Sheffield Wednesday are possibly a touch of value with a 1/4 goal start at home against Manchester City but the home side are not in amazing form and the visitors are not playing that badly. There will be better opportunities another day.

Cardiff get a 3/4 goal handicap against Spurs but Tottenham are a good Cup side and I fancy they will do the job in 90 minutes. The bookies do too though and this game is a no bet one too.

So it's a day of non betting on English football for me.