Euro 2008 Final Expert Picks

Spain v Germany
Euro 2008 - Final
Sunday 29 June, 7.45pm (UK time)

Most people would say that Spain have played the better football until now in this tournament - and therefore deserve to win. But this is the European Championship and a fairytale ending might be denied the Spanish by a German team who haven't read the script. It's not that Germany's performances at Euro 2008 have been without merit. They have, after all, scored three times in both of their knock-out games so far. That's a decent achievement, even if it was aided by some poor Portuguese marking in the quarter-finals and comical goalkeeping from Rustu Recber at the semi-final stage. Michael Ballack's commanding performance in the 3-2 win over Portugal was one of the individual highlights of the tournament. And Bastian Schweinsteiger's transformation into one of the most potent goalscoring midfielders at Euro 2008 after his sending-off against Croatia has been a joy to behold too. Spain have been a more accomplished outfit. They won all three of their group games, albeit needing injury-time winners to see off Sweden (2-1) and Greece (2-1) after their thumping victory (4-1) over Russia. Their penalty shoot-out victory over Italy was thoroughly deserved, as they outplayed the Azzurri while never reaching their best. Then their 3-0 semi-final victory over Russia included perhaps the most fluent and coherent 45 minutes of football at the finals – the passing, movement and finishing were sublime. It was one of the best displays of midfield play seen in recent years. The reason why we believe Spain will win here though is that they have their feet on the ground. That narrow, quarter-final win over Italy taught the players how to win hard; after that kind of experience, there will be no premature celebrations in the camp. The players, remember, also found it difficult to break down Russia's defence in the semi-final first-half so their passage to the final has been a perfect mix of struggle and skill. The other factor that separates Spain from Germany has been the quality of their defence. Casillas has been the best goalkeeper in the competition, while defenders Puyol and Marchena have formed the most impenetrable central defensive barrier in a tournament where few back fours have shone. Certainly their German counterparts - Per Mertesacker and Christoph Metzelder - have looked cumbersome, frequently giving the ball away and conceding six goals in four games. Losing David Villa through injury may be a blessing in disguise because it means Luis Aragones avoids what would have been the most difficult decision of his international managerial career: whether to drop one of his two strikers (Fernando Torres being the other) to make room for Cesc Fabregas, who excelled after coming on as a substitute in the semi-final. With Villa ruled out, Fabregas will almost certainly start in a fluid 4-1-4-1 formation, with Xavi, Iniesta and Silva supporting the Arsenal man and Torres while Marcos Senna – arguably the player of the tournament – performs the midfield anchorman duties. It may take extra-time, it may take penalties, but it's impossible to oppose a Spain team in the ascendancy against a Germany that has had large slices of luck to get to this stage. Spain are 15/11 to win in normal time, with Germany 5/2 and the draw 9/4 but we prefer to be on the safe side and back Spain to simply lift the trophy at 8/13 (Germany are 11/8). Fans of historic trends might like to note that all six finals since the competition introduced semi-finals in 1984 have had under 2.5 goals so we are recommending that play too.

div class="inlinecol" id="banner1" style="float:left; border-width: 0px 1px 0px 0px; margin-left:0px; margin-right: 15px; padding: 0px 20px 5px 10px; ">