Russia v Spain Expert selection

Russia v Spain
Euro 2008 – Semi-Final
Thursday 26 June, 7.45pm (UK time)


The most prominent theme of this tournament is of teams promising so much but then falling by the wayside. Portugal and Holland both looked potential winners of the tournament before producing the sort of lacklustre, badly-organised performances that nobody saw coming. Will Russia, Holland’s conquerors, follow suit?

The manner in which Guus Hiddink’s side took apart Marco van Basten’s Oranjemen in Basel on Saturday night prompted predictably hyperbolic reactions across Europe, with many commentators ready to crown the eastern Europeans champions with two games to go. Such commentary is folly, and even more so given the fate that befell the Portuguese and Dutch. Russia were outstanding against Ruud van Nistelrooy and co – but that has very little relevance to this match.

In the past Spain have been guilty of buying into the hype about their ability, but their reliance on last-minute goals to beat Sweden (2-1) and Greece (2-1) in the group stages, followed by the tense, dour 120 minutes of football that led up to their penalty shoot-out win over Italy in the last eight, will have left the entire squad in no doubt as to how difficult it is to win the competition. As a result there will be no complacency in the Spanish camp – and at 11/10 to win in 90 minutes are worthy favourites.

Yet, despite fancying Spain, we feel the draw is a better price at 5/2. It would be no surprise to see Luis Aragones’ side make the final but the 4/7 on them to do so has absolutely no appeal. Russia are 6/4 to reach Sunday’s showdown, or 3/1 to win in normal time, but the draw is the best bet simply because it occurs so frequently in European Championship semi-finals. It’s done so in eight of the last 12 last-four matches, with at least one semi finishing all-square after 90 minutes at five of the last six tournaments. That alone is reason enough to favour the stalemate.

Recommended Bets:
3pts on the Draw at 5/2