Germany v Turkey Euro 2008 Picks

Germany v Turkey
Euro 2008 – Semi-Final
Wednesday 25 June, 7.45pm (UK time)

OK, so Germany deserve to be favourites to win their European Championship semi-final – but is there any way of justifying their short price of 4/9 to triumph within 90 minutes? It seems impossible – since neither the relative strengths and weaknesses of the two sides, or the historic outcomes of Euro semi-finals, suggest any value in backing Joachim Low’s side at those odds.


The Turks’s doggedness is the first reason why the value appears to lie with them. They simply refuse to lie down, evidenced by their remarkable comeback to draw 1-1 against Croatia in the quarter-finals before winning on penalties, but also in their victories from behind against Switzerland (2-1) and Czech Republic (3-2) in the group stages. Does such a team stand a 69% chance, as the price suggests, of losing in 90 minutes?


Secondly, the stalemate is by far the most popular outcome at this stage of the competition. If you look back to 1984, eight of the 12 semi-finals since that year have finished all-square at the end of normal time, with only one tournament – Euro 88 – seeing neither of the semi-finals clashes needing an extra 30 minutes (not to mention penalties) to decide the winner. That makes the price of 3/1 (bigger might be available if you shop around) on the draw appealing, especially if you take the most sensible route and back the other last-four clash (Spain v Russia on Thursday night) to end in the same result as well. For that reason, the draw is our main selection.


It’s no surprise to see Miroslav Klose (6/4 to score anytime), Lukas Podolski (13/8) and Michael Ballack (7/4) at the top of the scorers’ market, since they’re the men in form. Having seen both Klose and Ballack head home far too easily from free-kicks in the 3-2 last-eight win over Portugal, Turkey will surely be better prepared to deal with set-pieces, but Ballack remains an outstanding bet, since he’s the taker of most of Germany’s free-kicks and an increasingly prevalent influence around the edge of the box.

Recommended Bets:
2pts on the Draw at 3/1 or better

1pt on Ballack to score any time at 7/4