Croatia v Turkey Selections

Croatia v Turkey
Euro 2008 – Quarter-Final

Friday 20 June, 7.45pm (UK time)

We’re about to find out how good Croatia really are. The English press seem to have fallen in love with Slaven Bilic – partly, perhaps, to make themselves feel better about England’s exclusion at the former West Ham defender’s hands – while reference to the pride and patriotism of one of Europe’s smallest nations has accompanied the Croats every step of the way so far.


But do they deserve to be evens to beat Turkey – a best-priced 4/1 – in 90 minutes? Probably not. True, they played some excellent football against Germany. But we have seen Croatia raise their game against so-called bigger nations before, most famously when beating Germany 3-0 at the 1998 World Cup.


However, now the boot is on the other foot. How do the Croats fare as favourites? Badly, it seems. They laboured to a 1-0 win over Austria in their opening fixture thanks to a Luka Modric penalty, and barely deserved their 1-0 victory over Poland in their final group match, although nothing was at stake. Croatia have yet to win by more than a one-goal margin at these finals. That statistic is a reason for wariness against the dogged Turks.

The black mark against Turkey is goalkeeper and captain Volkan Demirel’s suspension. His moment of stupidity against Czech Republic, when he pushed an opponent to earn a red card and two-match ban, leaves veteran Rustu Recber likely to keep goal for this match.

Croatia have scored first in all three games and may do so here, which is why the 4/6 on them netting the opener looks worth taking. But Turkey match the Croats’ indefatigable spirit, which is why it would be no surprise to see the underdogs mount a second-half comeback. Croatia/Draw in the HT/FT market could therefore be a value play.

Betting Recommendations:
2pts on Croatia to score first at 4/6
1pt on Croatia to win 1-0 at 5/1
1pt on Croatia/Draw in the Half-Time/Full-Time market at 14/1