Euro 2008 17 Oct

Tonight’s Euro 2008 qualifiers have some interesting games but finding a decent bet is not that easy. My latest tactic of relying on the Romanians in this competition is not much use tonight as they are a top price of 1/14 away to Luxembourg tonight. So I will have to stick to plan B, which is to rely on Albabia, a side that continues to be under-rated by the bookies. Perhaps it is because no one ever bets on them – I can’t imagine the pro punters of Albania have much of a combined bankroll – but their form is perfectly respectable and it is hard to see why they should be able to be backed with a ¾ goal advantage at home tonight. In the reverse fixture against Bulgaria they managed a 0-0 draw and since then they have managed a 0-0 draw against Slovenia last weekend (away from home) and lost 1-0 to Holland to a second half injury time goal. Perhaps the bookies are looking at this game as a ‘must win’ for Bulgaria but on the evidence seen recently it is going to be a tough task for them. The best wager is to have a two point bet on Albania (+3/4) at 1.80 and a one point bet on it ending 0-0 at 11.5/1 (12.50) on Betfair.

[Albania drew 1-1]

Elsewhere it is harder to find a good bet. I quite fancied Norway away to Bosnia but the Bosnians won the reverse leg 2-1 and may well fancy their chances tonight. England are definitely opposable in Russia tonight, especially without John Terry, and they have undoubtedly been flattered by their three most recent victories. Most of the time England have been pretty ropey and they will find it tough to adapt to the cold conditions and plastic pitch. If you think that Russia were not long ago considered more likely to qualify from Group E than England then it is hard to see why you can back them with a ¼ goal start at home. Given that Russia lost 3-0 at Wembley, I expect Hiddink to tell his team to dig and try and win it on the counter-attack. A draw would suit McClaren so my suggestion is a speculative one point bet on no goalscorer at 7/1 (8.00) with Paddy Power or Boylesports.

[Russia won 2-1]

There is a theory that Germany will be looking to lose their match against the Czech Republic tonight in order to avoid being top ranked in Euro 2008, which because of the bizarre way UEFA rules work means they would have a much tougher draw than if they were ranked lower. I’m not sure I think that the Germans would go as far as throwing matches in order to do this but it is a brave punter who sticks their cash on them tonight.