Euro 2008 13 Oct

On a day with plenty of short priced favourites, there are two bets that look good value to me in the Euro 2008 fixtures.

The first is to take Romania at home to Holland. Romania are one of the most under-rated national teams in the world and are currently 13th in the FIFA rankings. They top Group G and are equal on points with today’s opponents. So why are they ¼ goal underdogs? Because the bookies know that Holland, with their long history in football, will be more popular with bettors. This is mad thinking. Romania have a full squad to choose from while Holland are missing van Persie, Sneijder, van der Sar, Kuyt and Vennegoor. The handicap looks all wrong to me and Romania (+ ¼ ) at 1.80 are worth a three point bet.

[Romania won 1-0]

Albania with a goal start against Slovenia is a good value bet – Slovenia are in decline as a footballing nation and Albania’s record is a lot better than they are given credit for. If they can play as well as they did against Holland in the last set of fixtures (the Dutch scored in injury time to take the win) then they should easily cover the handicap. They have only lost three games in qualifying and two of those were by a single goal margin while Slovenia have lost five of their nine 2008 qualifying games. The reverse fixture was a tight 0-0 affair and the bookies’ prices simply look wrong. Have a two point bet on Albania (+1) at 1.77.

[Albania drew 0-0]

The only other bet I thought about taking was Ukraine to beat Scotland. The Scots are over-rated by the bookies after a couple of good victories and it is hard to see why the Ukrainians, who are a good side that have just had two bad results, are as big as 4.33 (10/3) for victory today. Shevchenko alone could be the difference between the two sides and the prices look a trifle generous. The only concern is that Ukraine may feel they have no chance of qualifying and put in little effort, while with the Scots you are at least 100% guaranteed they are trying. With two other good bets I can leave this wager alone.

For those thinking of taking the big name teams to cover sizeable handicaps, a word of warning. There are very few easy games in Europe any more and the days of 8-0 thumpings are generally behind us. Be wary as the value is, almost without exception, with betting the minnows.