Euro 2008 24 March

I am travelling this week so apologies for the delay in posting my picks.

I am not a great fan of betting on qualifiers for the big competitions as it is often hard to assess the form and getting injury news is a nightmare. My usual tactic is to oppose the big name teams that are badly out of form and there are two bets that stand out on that basis.

The first is to oppose England. Steve McClaren's England side just don't seem to be able to play together. They are all individually talented but put them on the pitch together and they form a side that would struggle to avoid relegation in the Premiership. Steven Gerrard admitted as much in an interview earlier this week when he said there was still a lot of work they need to do to develop into a cohesive team and I really don't get why they are such a big favourite in Israel. For the Israelis this is a huge match and it has been hyped for the last week across their media. Israel's football prowess has increased markedly in recent years and they have a strong crop of players in their domestic league who make up the national team. They are used to playing together, are massively under-rated by the pundits and have plenty of talent, as we have seen by the performance in the past couple of years by Israeli teams in the UEFA Cup. I think they have a decent chance of winning this game and with a 3/4 goal start Israel are worth a three point wager at 1.78.

[England drew 0-0]

Spain are another side who have been struggling in qualifying and they are an insanely short price against a Danish side who are high on confidence. Spain have struggled to three points in their first three Euro 2008 games while Denmark have managed seven in three games. Spain seem to have lost the plot a little and until they show any worthwhile form they should be opposed. The Danes play well together as a team and are massively under-rated by the bookies. Have a two point bet on Denmark at 2.00.

[Spain won 2-1]
By comparison with these two games the other matches offer little value and I am happy to leave them alone.

As for the friendly games this weekend, you can see why people go into the bookmaking business when you look at these games. There are plenty of matches where unless you know the motivations of the teams you would be mad to have a bet and in most cases they are contests between two sides who simply don't care about the final scoreline. Home advantage is usually greater than normal in these games (as the visitors would rather be shopping than playing the game) but not having a bet is the only sensible course.