Euro 2008 7 & 8 Oct

International matches are tough for bettors to work out because there is little consistent form to work with, injury news is often hard to obtain and there are often all sorts of team politics going on that we are only told about after a fancied side have been beaten by a country one-eighth of their size. As a result I usually keep my stakes low on these matches.

Italy vs Ukraine

Italy have got off to a very slow start in Group B with a 3-1 loss to France and a 1-1 draw to Lithuania. This very often happens to sides that have won a big competition like the World Cup and it takes some time for them to adjust down to playing lowly qualifiers rather than the final stages of major tournament. They look a side to avoid, especially with Grosso missing this weekend. Materazzi is back and Toni and del Piero have been recalled to the squad but I just wonder whether Italy are in the midst of some experimenting to try and find what side they want to play in the long term.

Followers of Bet Asia’s picks will know that I was a big fan of Ukraine, although I was disappointed by the way they played in the World Cup. Ukrainian sides have had a torrid time since in European competition with both Dinamo Kiev and Shakhtar Donetsk getting beaten up in the Champions League. Rebrov and Rotan are injured and Shevchenko has some sort of viral infection, although I do expect him to play. The talismatic captain is out of form for Chelsea, which worries me, but the bookies surely have reacted too much by making Ukraine one goal underdogs for this contest. Ukraine have won their only game in the group, albeit that was a 3-2 home win over Georgia, and I think they have a good chance of covering then handicap.

I recommend a one point bet on Ukraine (+1) at 1.80
[Italy won 2-0]

Sweden are in massive decline at the moment and morale is awful in their squad after years in which they were a great unit. Spain should win this but the handicap line is quite high enough at ¼ goal for the away side to stop me having a bet.

Greece vs Norway

However while Sweden are in decline, their Scandinavian neighbours Norway have hit their stride in this competition and top Group C with maximum points. They beat Moldova – hardly a major achievement – but their 4-1 away win in Hungary certainly impressed me. Riise is back for this game and Solsjkaer is in peak form, having scored two for Manchester United last weekend. Norway are good travellers and they go to a Greek side that is stumbling a bit at the moment. They beat Moldova in an unconvincing 1-0 away victory but they look a shadow of the side that won Euro 2004. They have a good defence so I expect a low scoring game but the Greek attack is insipid and it is hard to see where their goals might come from.

Norway are good value with a ¼ goal start and are worth a two point bet at 1.95
[Greece won 1-0]

I was tempted to tip against Wales because they have massive injury problems this week. They are missing three of their four normal defenders and Ryan Giggs is out too. But the bookies seem to have taken this account by making Slovakia level handicap for their trip to the Principality. If I could have taken the Slovaks with a ¼ ball start I would have liked to and if you can with your bookie then you should do so.

If Russia had not recently got a good coach in Gus Hiddink I would have been tempted to bet against them, especially as they play Israel. The Russians needed the Dutchman’s organisational instinct to improve their play and they have responded well to his arrival. Israel are probably the team in ‘Europe’ given least credit for their play and they are a decent outfit. Those looking for an ‘extra’ bet may well be tempted to take them with a ¾ goal start but probably there is better value to be had backing them at 7.50 (13/2) to record a surprise win.

The only other game that interested me was Moldova vs Bosnia-Herzegovina which looks like a perfect low scoring game to me. Neither side has much of an attack and those with access to the under/over 2.5 goals will want to take some of the 1.70 on the ‘under’ option.

I would leave the six international friendlies alone. So often players do not care about these game and coaches are using them to test new players or experiment with formations. They often throw up ‘shock’ results and it is hard to make money betting on them unless you have access to special information about the motivations of the sides involved.