EPL 27 & 28 Oct

Birmingham v Wigan

Birmingham have lost their last four and have only managed wins over bottom of the table Bolton and Derby. They are however playing at home, still however they are flattered by their 2.14 odds.

Wigan have also lost their last 4 and lie one place below Birmingham in the Premiership. Wigan’s good start to the season has headed downhill and they have only managed to pick up two points since taking six in their first two games.

Both teams are out of form and I doubt that the game will produce many goals but the 1.63 odds on a goal tally of under 2.5 are not great value. Not a great game to bet on I’m afraid.

Chelsea v Man City

Again, another very difficult game to call. Both teams are on very good form, Chelsea seem to have got over the departure of Mourinho and fans are beginning to trust Avram Grant. Man City meanwhile lie 3rd in the table, just a point behind Manchester United.

City are, however, playing away from home and this does seem to be where they have stumbled this season. Elano is on form for Man City, having scoring four in their last three and it would not be surprising if he found the Chelsea net. Chelsea are also scoring with Drogba still playing well despite reports that he is unhappy at the club.

The odds on the game however aren’t great, they back Chelsea at 1.58 to win and the +1 Asian Handicap on Man City is no safe bet.

Manchester United v Middlesbrough

United are heavy favourites at 1.23 and so they should be, Gareth Southgate’s men have had their work cut out this season. They haven’t won since beating Birmingham in early September. In the same period (of six games) they have scored just three times, two of them coming against Sunderland in their two all draw.

United meanwhile are on form, scoring heavily (12 in their last three). You would have to be mad to back Middlesbrough to take points from this game. You can however expect Rooney and co to put a fair few past Mark Schwarzer on Saturday. Odds are very low for their to be more than 2.5 goals and not worth betting on, nor is buying borough with a +1 ¾ handicap, as lethal United could easily surpass that goal Margin. So no betting in this game either.

Portsmouth v West Ham

Portsmouth are on excellent form, they have won their last two games 2-0 and striker Mwaruwari is currently the Premiership’s top scorer. It is rather obvious therefore why the bookies are giving just 1.83 for a Portsmouth win.

Despite winning 3-1 home win at the weekend against Sunderland, West Ham have been dropped too many points recently by losing their last three premiership games. The Hammers have not looked comfortable when travelling, losing their two most recent away games.

With the bookies backing Portsmouth there does not seem to be much betting here.

Reading v Newcastle

Both teams seem to either win or lose their games, between them they have tied just three games this season. Newcastle do not look too solid away, they have lost their last two away games, but in their defence the games were against Man City and Arsenal. Portsmouth are not in as good form as Newcastle, in their last ten they have lost seven and won three.

You would probably tip Newcastle to win but the odds of 2.68 aren’t really worth a punt nor are the 1.90 odds on the game producing over 2.5 goals.

Sunderland v Fulham

Fulham have not scored in their last three games, they have however managed to take 2 points from the same three games. Sunderland meanwhile have scored five in their last three yet have failed to produce a single result from any of those games.

The fact that Sunderland are scoring against teams like Arsenal do give them an edge and if they can break the cottagers defence then they could easily take three points. However, at best I would be tempted to back Fulham with a +1/4 handicap at 1.87 as a draw does look likely. Once again however, there does not seem to be much betting here.

Bolton v Aston Villa

Games where teams have new managers are usually no go zones; the odds however on this game are extremely tempting.

Bolton are bottom of the Premiership with just one win this season, Villa are 9th with a game in hand and are looking good this season, they have beaten Chelsea and despite recently losing 4-1 to Man U, they are still looking like strong contenders for a European place this season.

Whatever you do however don’t back Bolton as their odds are very low at 2.86, and where new managers can occasionally inspire shock results, at odds like this you’d have to be extremely brave to back such an occurrence.

I would recommend a one point bet on Villa to win at odds of 2.74 on betfair.

[Villa drew 1-1]

Derby v Everton

Everton have scored 12 in their last five, even against tricky opposition such as Liverpool and Newcastle. Derby have not even scored half that all season, surely one would put the rams at huge outsiders. On betfair however they are given odds of 3.95 and you can get odds of 2.24 on an Everton win.

Derby does not have a new boss but rather they are using ex assistant manager Billy Davies. The club is in turmoil with Trevor Birch, their chief executive leaving this work.

Have a one point bet on Everton beating Derby at 2.24.

[Everton won 2-0]

Liverpool v Arsenal

It is bizarre that the bookies are favouring out of form Liverpool over the superlative Arsenal. One just has to look at each teams recent Champions league outing to see how different the clubs are at the moment. Arsenal won 7-0 against an in form Slavia Prague team whilst Liverpool slumped to defeat against Besiktas, leaving the reds in grave danger of failing to reach the last 16 of the Champions league.

The game will however be a tight one. It is Arsenals first big test of their campaign and comes a week before they take on Manchester United at the Emirates. The game is to be played at Anfield, which is always a great boost for Liverpool.

Although the odds are quite good for Arsenal, the game is always going to be very big and this makes betting on it difficult.

Tottenham v Blackburn

Blackburn are on astounding form of late, they have won their last five with Mc Carthy, Santa Cruz and Bentley all scoring regularly. They are sixth in what has been an hotly contested premiership this season and seem to be going from strength to strength.

Tottenham have suffered all season, coming to a head on Thursday night when Martin Jol was fired. Surely Ramos’ introduction at White Hart lane will not be finalised in time to save spurs from continuing their appalling run in a tough game against Blackburn this Sunday.

A two point bet on a Blackburn victory at 3.45 is the recommendation.

[Blackburn won 2-1]