EPL 20 & 21 Oct

George Oborne, Bet Asia’s new EPL expert, looks over the weekend EPL games and offers his expert analysis.

Saturday’s games

Blackburn vs Reading

Blackburn are heavy favourites and so they should be, having won the last four on the trot. Blackburn are 6th in the Premiership with a game in hand and the only real choice is whether to back Blackburn -3/4 on the Asian handicap at 2.00 in the knowledge that Blackburn will secure a win. In my view the bookies have the odds about right on the game and so no bet is the choice.

Manchester United vs Aston Villa

As usual United are overrated by the bookmakers at 1.87. The idea of the Villains causing an upset is an attractive one; United will presumably be resting players after internationals and also in preparation for their trip to Kiev on Tuesday. In reality however the 5.00 odds on an upset happening are not really worth your money.

I also looked at the under/over 2.5 goals market as Man Utd put four in against Wigan in their last game and Villa managed to put another quadruple in Paul Robinson’s net when they played Spurs in early October. Then again Man United have been criticised heavily for their low margin wins this season and Villas only other high goal count this season was against Wrexham in the Carling Cup. No bet is the call.

Everton vs Liverpool

The derby game is huge this weekend; Liverpool are desperate to catch up with the leading two and are in great need of three points. Meanwhile their rivals across town would love to put themselves level with the reds by beating them at Anfield. The Toffees have been finding the back of the net at home and away, scoring ten in their last four. Liverpool meanwhile have only managed three goals in their last four premiership games.

Liverpool’s players have been away on International duty and they have a must win Champions league game against Besiktas on Wednesday, so it does seem that the time may well be ripe for Everton to take points from Liverpool at Anfield. Betfair give the best price at 4.00, these may seem like poor odds but a pumped Everton could hit a jet lagged Liverpool hard when released from their traps. A one point bet on an Everton victory at 4.00 (3/1) is the value call.

[Liverpool won 2-1]

Arsenal vs Bolton

With Bolton at 21.00 and Arsenal at 1.29 the story looks set. Arsenal have won their last ten in spectacular fashion whilst Bolton are stuck, second from bottom, with no manager. All the odds seem to favour Arsenal too heavily so there is not much value but if I had to have a bet I would back Arsenal to win with a -1 1/2 handicap at 2.02 as a two goal win margin is the least we can expect from a rampant Arsenal side. Indeed for longer odds one could back the game to produce five or more goals at a price of 5.00 on betfair.

Fulham vs Derby

Both teams are sitting in the relegation zone, Fulham haven’t won a Premiership game since August and Derby are yet to gain a point away from home. It seems that both teams will struggle to get a win and certainly the 6.00 odds on Derby to win are preferable to the 1.75 odds on Fulham. What is more certain however is that the game will produce few goals as both sides seem likely to struggle to score; A one point bet on the game producing fewer than 2.5 goals at evens is good value

[The game ended 0-0]

Wigan v. Portsmouth

This fixture will be very tight, each team having produced some impressive results over the last few weeks. Wigan beat Liverpool and have an extremely impressive home record, Portsmouth on the other hand have beaten both Blackburn and Fulham on the road recently and it really looks as if it will be an extremely tight game. Portsmouth have been scoring heavily of late, especially after their impressive 7-4 win over Reading, Wigan on the other hand have not been scoring as readily. It does seem that it is a game that will be very tight and the bookies, by giving odds of 3.35 on Wigan and 2.46 on Portsmouth, shouldn’t expect a great deal of custom on this market.

Birmingham v. Man City

The fact that City have won their last three in style whilst Birmingham have lost their last three might go some way in explaining why Man City are 1.64 to win on Saturday. The fact that Manager Steve Bruce has threatened to resign after a six year reign is another reason to worry if you’re backing Birmingham. City’s players may be a little tired after Internationals but really after good wins against Middlesbrough and Newcastle, Man City are looking at three points from this trip to St Andrews. The odds are stacked against Birmingham who stand at 7.00 and there does not seem to be much betting value on offer at all.

Middlesbrough v. Chelsea

Middlesbrough have not won in their last five games and in that period have scored just three whilst conceding 12. Avram Grant however has not lost a game since Chelsea’s meeting with Manchester United. Although there is unrest at Chelsea, one can’t help but feel that it will be a very low scoring game, Chelsea have scored just three in their last five, just as many as Middlesbrough, and Didier Drogba has told a French magazine how unhappy he is at Chelsea at the moment. Buying Chelsea with a ½ goal deficit therefore might be a good bet but the instability at Chelsea still makes it a difficult result to predict.

Sunday’s game

West Ham vs Sunderland

Here we have two teams who have lost their last two. To keep up with their respective packs, both teams will be looking to take three points from the game. There are problems facing either side, West Ham striker, Ashton has been sidelined but Sunderland are yet to win away from home and also are missing Paul Mc Shane after being sent off late in the game against Arsenal The bookies are backing West Ham, putting them at 2.00 whilst offering Sunderland up at 5.00. It does seem that after what was actually a very brave performance against Arsenal a small backing of Sunderland at 5.00 may not be too far fetched a punt. I recommend a one point bet on Sunderland at 5.00 to beat West Ham.

[West Ham won 3-1]

Monday’s game

Tottenham vs Newcastle

I fancy Tottenham strongly , especially given a ¼ advantage at 1.83, Tottenham are regularly putting the ball in the net, scoring eight in their last three games. Their shaky start to the season seems to be behind them, not having lost since their 3-1 defeat to Arsenal just over a month ago. Newcastle, on the other hand, has been behaving erratically. Three losses (including a 1-0 defeat to Derby) and two wins show great inconsistency within the side. Owen will be tired after the England game and may not even play leaving the Magpies with a depleted strike force. The clever money has to back Spurs. Have a two point on Tottenham with a ¼ goal advantage at odds of 1.83

[Tottenham lost 3-1]