EPL 28 & 29 Sept

Saturday's games

Next week sees another set of Champions League games and it would therefore pay to be slightly wary of Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester United in today's games.

Chelsea look the most vulnerable of those sides at the moment with plenty of the squad unhappy about Mourinho's departure and until they show proper form (ie something other than beating Hull in the Carling Cup) then they should be swerved. Fulham are their local rivals and generally put up a spirited effort for this game and over the last six seasons they have only lost by more than one goal once. With a 1 1/2 goal handicap the bookies are being too generous and Fulham are worth a two point bet at 1.92.

[Fulham drew 0-0]

Although the Gunners are in great form at the moment and playing with tons of confidence, I feel the bookies have got carried away a little too much and that the 3/4 goal handicap you can have on West Ham is good value too. The last three fixtures between these two sides at Upton Park in the Premiership have ended as draws and the Hammers have a good record overall against Arsenal in recent seasons. The handicap is much higher than I would have made it so a one point bet on West Ham (+3/4) at 1.82 is the selection.

[Arsenal won 1-0]

These are easily the best two bets of the day.

Sunday's game

The bookies look to have got the line about right on Everton, especially as the Toffees have won four of their last five home games against Boro. I made the line exactly what it is, so there is no value bet to be had.

Monday's game

Aston Villa went out of the Carling Cup last week in a surprise loss to Leicester and the bookies seem to have over-reacted to that result in making them a big underdog for today's game against Spurs. That seems a bit unfair given that the Villains have managed 10 points from a possible 15 in their last five Premiership outings. There is a concern that they are yet to score away from home this season in the Premiership but they will fancy their chances of getting at least a point at White Hart Lane tonight against a demoralized Spurs. No side has a worse home record in the league and with Martin Jol under enormous pressure my feeling is that Spurs are a side to swerve until they show signs of getting back into form. They may have beaten Boro 2-0 in the midweek Carling Cup game but the visitors were suffering from a huge injury crisis and did not put up much a show. On what we have seen so far this season Villa are decent value (+1/2) at 1.92 and are worth a one point wager.

[Villa drew 4-4]