Tuesday Champions League Pick

Liverpool v Arsenal
Champions League

Tuesday, 7.45pm (UK time)

Are we going to get a result this time? After two 1-1 draws between these teams in the last week one side surely has to come out on top at Anfield.

The home side hold a slight advantage going into the Quarter-Final second leg, a 1-1 draw at Arsenal last week giving them an away goal and ensuring that if Arsenal don’t score then they will progress to the Semi-Finals.

The trends are not on Arsenal’s side. Liverpool have never lost a European home tie or even conceded a home goal against an English side, with three 1-0 wins and two 0-0 draws in total. They have also won three of four overall ties against English sides. And to make matters worse for the Gunners all three victories have come against London sides.

With extra-time and penalties a distinct possibility, it is also worth looking at both teams’ shoot-out history in Europe. Again, Liverpool come out on top, having won all three of their spot-kick deciders (including against Chelsea in last season’s Semis).

Arsenal has won just one of their three shoot-outs, though they haven’t competed in one since 2000 (going down 4-1 to Galatasary). Gunners fans point to their teams decent record at Anfield in recent seasons for optimism, but in reality this is something of a myth.

In the league, Liverpool have notched up three consecutive home league wins against Arsenal (2-1 in 2004/05, 1-0 in 2005/06 and 4-1 last season), and the Premiership is a decent marker for judging form.

The visitors also make the trip north in the middle of their worst run of the season: just two wins in their last 11 games in all competitions has seen them all but out of the title race and has piled on the pressure for Tuesday’s game. The hosts are excelling at present and eight wins in their last 11 is just the sort of form you want to see moving into April.

Recommended Bets:

2pts on Liverpool to qualify at 8/13
1pt on Draw/Liverpool in the Half-time/Full-time market at 9/2