CL 23 & 24 Oct

Tuesday's games

Arsenal v Slavia Prague

At a first look, Arsenal are 1.16 whilst Slavia are 17.00, Arsenal’s domestic form has meant that the bookies have massively underrated Slavia Prague.

I am not suggesting that you back Slavia Prague at 17.00, but the Asian Handicap of +1 ¾ at a price of 1.99 is extremely attractive.

The bookies are rellying on an Arsenal rout over the Czech team, however the probability of Arsenal winning by three goals is actually quite low.

Slavia have scored 12 in their last three and are on terrific form; five points clear at the top of the Czech league, they have recently beaten rivals 2-0 away.

It seems that Slavia will be looking to make their toughest group game much tighter than the bookies would expect.

A one point bet on Slavia Prague with a +1 ¾ handicap is my recommendation.

[Arsenal won 7-0]

Stuttgart v Lyon

Lyon are on terrific form, having scored 15 goals in their last five, they are top of the French league and are regularly putting three goals past opposition keepers.

Stuttgart on the other hand lie 14th in the Bundesliga after getting thrashed 4-1 by Hamburg at the weekend. We therefore have one team who has scored 15 in their last five and another who has conceded 12. One would expect horribly short odds on Lyon, somehow, however, the bookies have Lyon at 2.6, this is an absolute steal and if you are planning on having a punt this weekend, then this is the game to go for.

A three point bet on Lyon to win at 2.60 is extremely good value.

[Lyon won 2-0]

Sevilla v Steau Bucharest

Sevilla has won just one of their last five games in the Spanish league and that was against bottom of the league Levante. The Spanish side are having an appalling start to the season.

If Steau Bucharest win both their games in hand they can go Second in the Romanian League. Steau are, however, having difficulty finding the net, having scored just 4 in their last five.

It would be rash to say that Steau could win this game at 16.00, but to back an out of form Sevilla at 1.25 would not be sensible.

Backing Steaua with a +1 ½ Handicap at 2.1 is very good value as any win by Sevilla will be by a low margin due to their inability to score at the moment. More promising however are the 2.26 odds that fewer than 2.5 goals will be scored as neither team currently seem capable of finding the back of the net.

A one point bet on Steaua Bucharest with a +1 ½ handicap at 2.1 and also another one point bet on the game producing under 2.5 goals at 2.26 are my recommendations.

[Sevilla won 2-1]

Wednesday's games

Besiktas v Liverpool

A must win game for Liverpool after picking up just one point from their first two champions league games. Liverpool have just come through a patch of poor form but their 2-1 win over Everton this weekend showed great maturity.

Besiktas have also been playing well and are sitting in third place in the Turkish league. It does seem too much of a risky bet to bet anything other than a Liverpool win and at odds of 1.73 there does not seem to be too much betting on offer.

AC Milan v Shakhtar

Milan go into this game having just lost 1-0 to Empoli at home. Shakhtar have been on form and scoring well (12 in their last five). They are unexpectedly top of their group, taking six points of Benfica and Celtic.

The game is a tricky one to predict, Milan are an extremely strong side and of course would be tipped to win this one. Shakhtar meanwhile are a team who are on far greater form than Milan and will be looking to maintain their lead in Group D. Obviously AC have the shorter odds at 1.48 and the 9.4 odds on Shakhtar are underrating them.

It seems the sensible thing to do would be to back Shakhtar with a 1 ¼ handicap at 1.85. Shakhtar are on form, Milan are not. The game looks to be closer than what the bookies are predicting.

A one point bet on Shakhtar with a +1 ¼ at 1.85 handicap is the recommendation.

[AC won 4-1]

Benfica v Celtic

This is a must win game for Benfica, they are currently bottom of Group D without a single point. After a recent goal drought Benfica won 2-1 last weekend against Leira and are unbeaten in their domestic lead. They have found it difficult to score this season and this has led to too many unnecessary draws. The Benfica defence is extremely tight this season, having conceded just two goals all season in the Portugese league.

Celtic meanwhile have come into difficulties when playing away this season, getting beaten 3-0 at the Ibrox and also getting beaten 3-2 by Hibernian. Celtic have also not been shy in finding goal this season putting five away against Inverness and three against Dundee.

Benfica are favourites at 1.99 and do look like winning with the home advantage as Celtic’s away form is very poor. However Benfica will have difficulty winning by a greater than one goal margin, therefore making Celtic at 1.98 with a + ½ goal handicap an attractive prospect.

A one point bet on Celtic with a ½ goal Asian Handicap.

[Celtic lost 1-0]

Chelsea v Shalke

Chelsea seem to have overcome the turmoil of Jose Mourinhos departure and have won their last three on the trot. Even unsettled striker Didier Drogba managed to score against Middlesbrough on Saturday.

Shalke are out of form recently, a difficult 1-1 draw on Saturday and a 2-0 defeat to Karlsruhe has seen the German team drop to fifth in the Bundesliga.

Chelsea look set to win this game and the bookies are in agreement putting Chelsea at 1.58

Marseille v Porto

The top two in Group A will battle it out tonight in an attempt to remain clear of Liverpool, who look like beating Besiktas tonight.

Marseille’s great start in the Champions League has not replicated in the French League where they are currently 17th. They have taken just ten points from eleven games this season and have only managed to score eight goals in the same period. Surely their priorities will lie in recovering from an appalling start in the French League and their minds may well not be on the Champions League tonight.

Meanwhile, Porto are seven points clear after seven games and are looking in great shape. They are undefeated this season and have only dropped points when drawing with Liverpool.

It seems therefore that one has to back Porto and when the odds are as high as 3.2 for the win then it does seem like a high value bet.

Back Porto at 3.20 to win with a two point bet.

[The game ended 1-1]

Real Madrid v Olympiacos

Real Madrid are top of The Spanish League and have scored 17 goals in their first eight games. They are tied on points in Group C with Olympiacos and are really battling for first place in the group, neither team especially need to win the game.

Olympiacos are scoring well, netting 12 in their last five. However, they have not played well on the road this season and this sill count against them come Wednesday evening.

The bookies may have underated Olympiacos by giving them a +1 ½ goal handicap. A bet here might be worthwhile but Real Madrid definitely have the quality this season to win by a heavy margin and it not a certain bet.

Rosenborg v Valencia

Rosenborg have been very erratic lately and have lost all their recent away games, they are however playing at home and have been scoring well.

Valencia are however playing well on the road, beating deportivo 4-2 at the weekend, the Spaniards are scoring well and look in good form.

You would have to fancy Valencia to win this one and the only worthwhile bet would be to have a go at the game [producing over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.06. It does seem however that it is too much of a risk and I can’t see much betting on this tight game.

Werder Bremen v Lazio

Lazio look off form, especially after getting beaten 5-1 at home by Milan and hence there is good reason for them being put at 4.10 outsiders when compared to Werder Bremen, who currently are second in the Bundesliga behind Bayern.

Werder Bremen are racking up some huge goal tallys, scoring a massive 19 goals in their last five, including a massive 8-1 win at home against Arminia. Backing Werder Bremen with a – ¾ handicap at 2.07 does not seem like an unlikely gamble.

I would bank on a Werder Bremen win and 15 goals in their last three home games shows form that is strong enough to merit a winning margin of 2 goals or more.

A one point bet therefore on W Bremen with a –3/4 Asian handicap at odds of 2.07.

[werder won 2-1]