CL Final 23 May

When the bookies opened betting on the Champions League final they could not split Liverpool and AC Milan but since then (about a week ago) all the money has been for the Italians and they are now clear favourites to win this game. I think the punters are right in their investments because clearly Milan are the better side and they have performed well throughout the competition. They have an outstanding record in the Champions League and have made the last four consistently over the last decade. Die hard Liverpool fans will point to their victory over Milan in 2005 but that was the most extraordinary result and the second half of football would be hard for the Reds to replicate at any time, let alone in a game of this importance. On all known form, Liverpool are an inferior side to AC Milan.

However now the prices have moved against us, is there a bet worth having? The ¼ goal handicap looks about right, although if someone forced me to have a wager I would still take Milan at the prices.

A better bet at this stage is to look at the options for betting on a low scoring match. Most finals tend to be pretty dull contests and these two teams are more than capable of serving up a dire tactical contest. I expected the odds to be skewed more than usual in favour of a high scoring contest because of the 3-3 draw in 2005. But the bookies seem to have got it about spot on with the under 2.5 goals market trading at 1.59. The two best value options seem to be either the 0-0 draw at 7.40 on Betfair or a wager on Liverpool to fail to score against Milan’s excellent defence. Throughout this competition and the Serie A season Milan have kept goals conceded to a minimum and their focus will be on disrupting Liverpool. If the Milanese can play as they did in the semi final second leg against Manchester United then I find it hard to believe the Reds will score. At 2.60 on Betfair the odds on a Milan clean sheet are reasonably generous and it is worth a one point bet.

[AC won 2-1]