CL 10 & 11 Apr

Tuesday’s games

We made good money last week with the failure of both Manchester United and Chelsea to win against supposedly lesser clubs and the question is whether the bookies are still right to give the English sides the respect they seem to have in the second legs of these games.

Valencia vs Chelsea

Valencia have not lost at home this season in the Champions League and Chelsea face a really tough task here. The fact that Valencia scored an away goal at Stamford Bridge means they can happily settle for a 0-0 draw but I suspect the Spanish side will be going for the win, as that is the way Flores’ side plays. Valencia rested seven players at the weekend in preparation for this match while Chelsea, still desperately trying to win the Premiership, did not have the luxury of keeping their top players on the bench. Valencia have a great defence and unless Drogba has an outstanding night then I think that Chelsea will struggle to score more than a single goal. Of course 1-0 would be enough for them but Valencia are strong up front and I cannot see why the Blues are not considerable underdogs for this contest. Off a level handicap Valencia are great value and they are worth a three point bet at 2.10.

[Chelsea won 2-1]

Manchester United vs Roma

Manchester United come into this game with a 2-1 deficit but they are in a relatively good position by comparison with Chelsea as they at least have an away goal. 1-0 would be a fine result and the bookies seem to think that they will succeed in winning by at least that margin. I am less convinced. United are rated far more on reputation than recent form and the side that Sir Alex has to play today are clearly some way below what he had to offer pre-Christmas. At that time it was hard to think of any side in Europe that would feel confident against the Red Devils but now United have Saha and Scholes out to add to their injury list woes and they look like a team that is not quite all there. Roma did at least have the advantage of only playing against 10 men for most of the first leg, so it is hard to get a very accurate assessment of how well matched they are but Roma are a good side and riding high in Serie A and it would be a mistake to think that they are inferior to United by a great margin. The bookies certainly don’t give them enough respect and Roma with a ¾ goal start looks a value wager at 1.95 and is worth a two point bet.

[Manchester United won 7-1]

Wednesday’s games

After last night’s betting disaster it is hard to get too excited about tonight’s action, especially as the Liverpool vs PSV is toxic waste in terms of wagering. How can you know how much either side is trying when the contest is effectively already over. PSV have serious injury problems and are clearly a much worse side without Alex while Liverpool are simply going to be content to ease through the game with no injury problems. It is almost impossible to work out whether the ¾ goal handicap is correct and no bet has to be the call.

The Bayern Munich vs AC Milan is a very interesting game because although the Germans were clearly the worse side in the first leg they were able to come away with a 2-2 scoreline as the Italians wilted in the final quarter of the match. AC are an ageing team and could not cope with the pace of Bayern and my feeling tonight is that the home side will sit on the ball as much as possible and try and grind out a low scoring draw. The noises coming out of the Bayern camp are not hugely confident while the Italian press are saying that Milan have no chance, so I am going to take a risk and suggest this game could end up with no goals. Try a speculative one point bet on no goalscorer at 9.80 (8.8-1) with Betfair.

[AC won 2-0]