CL 21 & 22 Nov

Tuesday’s bets

There are a couple of games I can eliminate from my list of betting possibilities almost immediately. Arsenal are huge 1 ¾ goal favourites over Hamburg which looks far too high to me. The Gunners have struggled all season at their new Emirates Stadium and it is asking a lot for them to win by two clear goals in order for us to make a profit on this match. That might be seen as a reason to bet on the German visitors but it seems to me that there is little incentive to do so. Hamburg have lost all four Champions League games this season and conceded 10 goals while only scoring three. They have nothing to play for as they cannot even finish third in the group while Arsenal absolutely have to win this game to have a decent chance of qualifying. There’s just no incentive to have a bet on this match.

It is also a good idea to leave the AEK vs AC Milan game alone. Milan are a much weaker side than they have been for the last 5 years but they were extremely lucky with their draw and have already automatically qualified from group H. I don’t like betting on them at the best of times but when they don’t need to win, are playing badly and are asked to cover a ½ goal handicap away from home then I really don’t want to bet them. AEK need to win this game to keep their qualifying chances alive but they are so weak in attack that it is hard to fancy them. If I had to bet on this game I would take the Greeks with a ½ goal start at home but I am not forced to have a bet and so will leave this contest alone.

Real Madrid should beat an injury stricken Lyon side but I am not keen to have a bet on this game as both sides are already qualified for the next round. Real are in great form at the moment, especially with van Nistlerooy scoring for fun, but they did lose 2-0 in the reverse fixture and I don’t like betting sides that are short odds to cover in games where nothing matters that much. Lyon are missing Govou, Fred and Benzema which makes one wonder where they will score any goals. A best swerved contest.

The bookies are not giving anything away in the Celtic vs Manchester United match. I fancy United, who are in such great form at the moment, to win but the odds reflect the chances of that happening. Perhaps the best option in this contest would be to bet over 2.5 goals at 2.26 but I am happy to spend my money elsewhere.

Lille vs Anderlecht should be a home victory but the reverse fixture ended 1-1 and I am not totally convinced this is the stroll the bookies think it will be. Lille have only managed five points from four games in the Champions League and they have real problems scoring goals – on average they have scored just one a game. They have a tight defence but not much imagination in their play. They need to win this to keep up their chances of going through but Anderlecht will also want to win in order to secure a UEFA Cup place. Bookies have this game in as a low scoring encounter – it is 1.60 that there are under 2.5 goals – which means that Anderlecht being given a goal start is a really large handicap. The Belgian side do not have to travel a long way and also score plenty of goals (24 in 13 league games, albeit in a pretty weak league) and are value to cover the handicap. Have a two point bet on Anderlecht (+1) at 1.91.

[Lille and Anderlecht drew 2-2]

The other games are not betting prospects either. I would lean towards CSKA Moscow to cover a ¼ goal handicap at 1.82 against Porto as they have a strong home advantage. The handicap is high in the Benfica game and I would lean towards the Danish visitors with a goal start. Steau vs Dymano Kiev is tough to call as the visitors look like they are improving and a high scoring draw might be a possibility – perhaps have a very speculative bet on a 2-2 and 3-3 result at huge odds.

Wednesday’s bets

Tonight’s games kick off with Sparktak Moscow vs Bayern as the early fixture but it is not a game I would like to bet on. It is always hard for teams to get a result in the frozen pitches of Moscow but the Munich visitors won the reverse fixture 4-0 and on all known form are the better side. No bet is the advice.

Game of the night is Liverpool vs PSV as both are in good form in the Champions League and will be keen to win this match in order to top the group. Annoyingly the bookies are not giving much away on the handicap but if I had to have a bet I would take the Dutch visitors with a ¾ goal start. However there are better ways of spending one’s betting money tonight.

The Bordeaux vs Galatasaray game is an interesting one. Both sides have managed just one point from four games and the reverse fixture ended 0-0 in Turkey. The side who wins tonight is almost certain to qualify for the UEFA Cup so quite a lot is at stake. Bordeaux have failed to score a single goal all competition and have conceded five, while the Turks have scored three and allowed seven in the back of their net. However I would say that on the evidence of the matches so far that Galatasaray are marginally the better side and that they will fancy their chances of getting at least a point from this game. Have a one point bet on Galatasaray (+ ½) at 1.91.

[Galatasaray lost 3-1]

Valencia will be fancied by plenty of punters but I would be wary of them as they have some very serious injury problems. After a spectacular start to the season they have lost their way and they have just one victory in the last 6 competitive matches played. When a team is in that bad shape you simply have to oppose them and there is also the fact that they have already qualified for the next round to suggest that the Spanish side may not care too much about winning by a huge margin. Their Greek visitors are not that great a side but they still want to finish third to get into the UEFA Cup and they did at least manage to score two goals in the reverse fixture when an on song Valencia side beat them 4-2. I think the bookies have got this wrong and Olympiakos (+1) are a good value bet and you should have a two point wager at 1.92.

[Olympiakos lost 2-0]

The handicap in the Levski Sofia vs Barcelona game is too high for me to have a bet - a two goal handicap for the away side in Champions League is about as big a handicap as I have ever seen. However Sofia have conceded 3.25 goals per game in the Champions League this season and scored once and lost 5-0 in Barca, so it’s hard to be bullish about their chances even with plenty of home support.

Chelsea seem to have been abandoned by bettors this week and that is hardly surprising as they do not need to win this game. However Mourinho has taken over a strong side to Germany and they may well actually try quite hard. I find it hard to work out the Blues’ intentions here and so won’t be having a bet.

I can’t find a bet in any of the other matchups.