CL 17 & 18 Oct

Tuesday’s game

The Tuesday night games of the Champions League has been a bonanza one for favourite backers this season as all 14 of the odds-on favourites on the two Tuesdays of CL action have won. The bookies are in a lot of pain and will be hoping for a change of fortune tonight.

It is unusual to see four of the eight games tonight with the Asian handicap favourite being away from home. Usually in the Champions League there is a massive home advantage and yet Arsenal, AC Milan, Lyon and Real Madrid are all strong favourites for their trips away. All are good sides but I find it difficult to consider betting on them when I look at the record of home sides in the Champions League. Clearly some of these stats are distorted by the second group stages of some years ago when the clubs playing each other were all high quality but I can definitely say that if you always backed the favourites on their travels you would lose money in the long-run.

You could just blindly oppose all four of these sides tonight but I think the best bet is to be selective. Arsenal have won six games in a row but I think they are worth going against for their trip to Moscow tonight. CSKA play an ultra defensive 3-2-4-1 formation and that is really not to Arsenal’s liking. Wenger’s side much prefers a team that tries to maintain a high line and catch the Arsenal side offside as the pace of their strikers means this is easily beaten. What Arsenal are not so good at is breaking down a formation of nine men behind the ball, especially a defence of the quality of CSKA (three international defenders make up the back three). The Horses will try and attack the Gunners on the break but the key to their game is not conceding, as they managed to do against both Porto (0-0) and Hamburg (a 1-0 victory). The Gunners will probably be content to sit back and try and squeak a goal with a breakaway attack but everything Arsene Wenger has said this week suggests to me he would be happy to take a point from this game. I considered recommending the under 2.5 goals but at 1.63 the odds are really quite short and I am happy to take CSKA with a ¼ goal start at home for a one point bet at 1.99.
[CSKA won 1-0]

Of the other three favourites on the road I think Lyon are the most likely to struggle as Dinamo Kiev are a good side but I don’t really want to risk my hard-earned cash.

Boringly I don’t think I can see another bet tonight. I expect Lille to win at home against an AEK side that have been a big disappointment in their first two games. Porto are probably the best value of the home sides against a very weak Hamburg. Some will say the Germans have been unlucky this season but the truth is that they have not won a single game all season (they are 17th in the Bundesliga) and although they have good players they must wonder what they have to do to win. Porto top their league but they have been appalling in the Champions League and that is a reason not to risk money on them tonight. Benfica look the best value of the away sides with a ¼ goal start against Celtic. However if I wanted to bet that game I would be more tempted to take the 3.25 (9/4) about an outright victory for the Portugese raiders than to bet them on the handicap.

Wednesday’s game

It is not hard to work out what the game of the night is with Chelsea hosting Barcelona at Stamford Bridge in a game that could well be a worthy final. Both sides are right at the top of the outright betting for the tournament and it should be a great spectacle.

The injuries to Peter Cech and Carlo Cudicini are a serious blow to Chelsea’s chances as Hilario is not really in the same class and should he be ruled out during the game then the Blues will be in big trouble. I think that is a good reason for avoiding Chelsea but is it worth taking Barcelona? I am not so sure it is. Part of the reason is that the history between these two sides suggest this will be a bad tempered matchup and if they do start to kick each other to pieces it may simply be a question of which side can keep 11 men on the field. Eto’o is absent for Barca and that will rob them of a lot of their firepower and I expect they would be happy to take a point from this game. If your bookie offers Barca with a ¼ goal start there may be some small value in it but with most bookies offering level ball I think that it is a game best watched rather than bet on. If you have an account with Blue Square there is some value in the 4.00 (3/1) on offer about Barcelona not scoring a goal.

Valencia and Werder Bremen are hot favourites tonight but I do not like to take teams to cover big handicaps in the Champions League, despite the fact that last night almost every favourite succeeded in covering their handicap mark. I think Valencia are the most likely of the two to struggle to cover their 1 ½ goal handicap.

It is hard to find an attractive looking bet but I think it is worth risking a small wager on Olympiakos off a level handicap against AS Roma. Roma seem to be out of form at the moment and have lost three of their last five matches and will be low on confidence. Olympiakos lost to Valencia 2-0 in their opening match but looked better than the scoreline suggests and they should have won against Shakhtar in their 2-2 draw in Ukraine. The Greeks are good going forward and score plenty of goals, so they look like decent value on the handicaps. Try a one point bet on Olympiakos (level) at 1.95.
[Olympiakos lost 1-0]

Elsewhere I have to say I can’t see a sensible way of investing my cash.